[maaku]

> 4. Past performance is a predictor of future performance.

This is your real error. SpaceX is effectively acting in perpetual “test” mode. New lessons are learned with each flight and each rocket test, and that greatly informs all follow-on operations.

The type of analysis you've done is reasonable for a fleet of deployed 747's. It is (forgive me) entirely useless for this sort of endeavour at it's current stage.

I wonder what your analysis of SpaceX's future performance would have been in Oct 2008, right after their first successful Falcon 1 launch and three failed priors?