[ericmay]

Are you suggesting that Canada, Europe (I take it you mean the EU and UK), and perhaps Japan are forming a separate alliance without the United States because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Can you link to anything specific? Have there been alliance talks? What are the new alliances being formed called? I know there have been some arms purchases and agreements but that wouldn't have anything to do with forming an alliance separate from what already exists today.

[tim333]

Approximately this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_of_the_willing_(Russ...

[ericmay]

That's not an alliance, nor is it seeking to be one.

[tim333]

The wikipedia has "Building upon these bilateral discussions aiming at creating a hard core of allies in Europe focused on Ukraine and wider European security..."

I guess it depends how you define things.

[ericmay]

Allies isn't being used in terms of Alliance here. I don't know the full list but most of the countries on that list, and perhaps all, are already allies. There's nothing to further ally about.

What this is, is a cooperation framework toward a shared purpose. None of those countries are abandoning or being abandoned by the United States as an ally, nor are any of those countries creating new alliances with each other.

I know there's this gut reaction on the Internet to act like the rest of the world is banding together and leaving the United States because of President Trump or something, but it's just not the case. At the end of the day, the only country in the world that has military and industrial power to defend against Russia or China today is the United States. That's not a slight at Japan, or France, or anything like that, but an acknowledgment of reality.

President Trump's administration has been, in my view, haphazard and stupid in how it has treated out allies and partners in many ways. In some ways they've been correct though too, and it's important to not overreact to news headlines.

[tencentshill]

Nothing of note, yet. Like most US corporations, they're holding off on implementing real changes to see if we the people choose to continue on this self-destructive course after He leaves office.

[ericmay]

In some ways self-destructive, in other ways not. President Biden restricted early use of long range weapons to strike Russia - that was self-destructive too.

Really, what exactly are folks asking the United States to do here? Give more money or weapons? Sure we could give even more, I support that. I'm quite hawkish on both Russia and China.

But I don't think that giving more money and arms tips the scales enough for Ukraine to force Russia out. So where does that leave us? The EU isn't going to do anything militarily about the situation. As the PM of Poland said, 600+ million Europeans are asking 300+ million Americans to defend them from 180+ million Russians. Something doesn't seem right. That doesn't mean the Trump Administration has handled this well. I'll give them to the extent that it is genuine that pursuing peace, if possible, is what we should do. But it also doesn't mean that all of the political grandstanding and TRUMP MAN BAD is getting us anywhere either. Has he handled our alliances poorly, yea I think so. Are our allies leaving and forming new alliances? No, not in any material sense. Does Europe need to step up and spend to defend itself, absolutely. It also doesn't mean President Trump needs to be an asshat either. Some ways self-destructive, other ways not.

[tim333]

I would have prefered the US to be a bit firmer about Russia not invading in 2022 like don't do it or we'll send jets.

Still here we are and like you say 600m+ of us wanting 300m+ Americans to defend against Russia is a bit odd although you can see how it got that way - after WW1 and WW2 it seemed quite a good idea not to rearm Europe and the US was quite keen to confront the Soviets. It's changing now due to Trump being a bit useless and Europe not wanting to be next on the list after Ukraine.

[ericmay]

Tim I’m even more hawkish. I think we should have done what you suggest in 2022, but even today I think we should basically give Russia an ultimatum and then use air power to neuter their military (along with TBD ground forces from Europeans). The ideal time to do that was when we bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

I am happy that Europeans are taking their security more seriously, and I don’t fault them for not pursuing US levels of military spending. Both world wars were so catastrophic, how could someone imagine starting another war in Europe?! But then along comes Russia, aided and abetted by China and North Korea and Iran.

I’m not sure if President Trump has been useless. He’s certainly useful to someone but I for the life of me can’t tell who. One day he’s ready to force Ukraine to accept Ukraine’s demands, the next the administration says it’s open season on Russian shadow fleet tankers. He’s tired of paying, and I think we are giving away less, but then they are happy to sell weapons and provide loans. Loans which will be useless if Ukraine is conquered.

Though I do want to point out that post-WW2 European militaries were staffed to be ready to fight the Soviets too.