[DaveZale]

Sadly, Morgan Stanley suggests that the release of this information may result in invoking the "Osbourne Effect." Osbourne Computer, decades ago, released information about a great new future model. This resulted in customers refraining from buying the current Osbourne model, resulting in steep losses and bankruptcy. Not to say bankruptcy will happen to Rivian, but many customers may refrain from buying the current R1 model, and instead opt for the future R2 model, which may result in a bad quarter or two for Rivian. FWIW. Rivian seems to have amazing technology in the works, but investors may be in for a bumpy ride until a successful R2 rollout ... according to Morgan Stanley (which may be conflicted by their business with Tesla).

[belter]

>>Morgan Stanley suggests that the release of this information may result in invoking the "Osbourne Effect." Osbourne Computer, decades ago, released information about a great new future model. This resulted in customers refraining from buying the current Osbourne model, resulting in steep losses and bankruptcy.

Sadly that did not work for Tesla, and the promises of FSD next year...for the last 10 years...

[hollasch]

FSD is a software feature, planned for support on existing hardware. Over-the-air hardware updates are not so easy.

[belter]

Those were claims already dismissed:

"Tesla (TSLA) has to replace computer in ~4 million cars or compensate their owners" - https://electrek.co/2025/04/14/tesla-tsla-replace-computer-4...

[thejazzman]

It’s literally called the FSD computer and the software is called “supervised”. So if anything they’re directly claiming it’s a hardware accomplishment while the software is lesser

[dzhiurgis]

If you think FSD is solely limited by LIDAR I have some news to you - Waymo does most of its driving on cameras.

[belter]

Their production stack is explicitly multi-sensor, and LiDAR is a primary source for metric 3D geometry plus localization and cameras are mainly for semantics. Waymo documents the Waymo Driver as LiDAR plus cameras plus radar.

[dzhiurgis]

> cameras are mainly for semantics

Which is the most important part...

[SR2Z]

Citation needed for that.

Waymo uses both LIDAR and RADAR to collect precise data on distance and speed. If it's foggy (commonly the case in SF) those two let the service continue with no interruptions.

A Tesla in those conditions would hopefully refuse to drive itself, but for some reason I think it would just drive badly and pretend that it was doing something safe.

[rationalist]

I'm not sure how informed most consumers are these days.

[snowwrestler]

I was going to say the opposite: that unlike back in the Osbourne days, consumers today understand that there will always be “something better” announced soon, and they’re used to making purchase decisions anyway.