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In addition to Mastermind, Wordle also falls into the same category. Optimal play to reduce the search space in both follow the same general pattern - the next check should satisfy all previous feedback, and included entries should be the most probable ones, both of those previously tested, and those not.
If entries are equally probable, include the one which eliminates the largest number of remaining possibilities if it is correct. For wordle, «most probable» is mostly determined by letter frequency - while in Mastermind, it’s pure probability based on previous guesses.
For instance, if you play a Mastermind variant with 8 pegs, and get a 2/8 in the first test - each of your 8 pegs had a 1/4 chance of being correct.
So you select 2 at random to include in the next guess. If you then get a 2/8 from the second - you would include 4 previous entries in the next guess, 2 entries from the first that was not used in the second, as well as 2 entries from the 2nd - because the chance you chose the correct entries twice, is less than the chance the two hits are from the 6 you changed. |
> Optimal play to reduce the search space in both follow the same general pattern - the next check should satisfy all previous feedback, and included entries should be the most probable ones, both of those previously tested, and those not.
The "next check should satisfy all previous feedback" part is not exactly true. That's hard-mode wordle, but hard mode is provably slower to solve than non-hard-mode (https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordle-optimal/) where the next guess can be inconsistent with previous feedback.