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by ben_w
184 days ago
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> 2) already economically viable, or projected to be economically viable within 2 years by actual process engineers with experience in scaling up chemical/electrical plants to industrial size Why 2 years? Even though I'm expecting the current approximately-exponential growths of both PV and wind to continue until they supply at least 50% of global electrical demand between them, I expect that to happen in the early 2030s, not by the end of 2027. (I expect global battery capacity to be between a day and a week at that point, still not "seasonal" for sure). |
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Significantly longer than that and you go from prediction to speculation, and it is unwise to base a country's energy policy on speculation.