[daturkel]

As a math guy who loves reality tv, I was also drawn to the show and wrote a blog post [0] about how to programmatically calculate the probabilities as the show progresses. It was a lot of fun optimizing it to be performant. You can `pip install ayto` to use it to follow along with the show or try out scenarios.

The linked post is a very thorough treatment of AYTO and a great read. I really like the "guess who" bit on how to maximize the value of guesses. It's a shame the participants aren't allowed to have pen and paper—it makes optimization a lot trickier! I'm impressed they do as well as they do.

[0]: https://danturkel.com/2023/01/25/math-code-are-you-the-one.h...

[owenlacey]

Let's be friends :')

Loved your post, really enjoyed getting into the meat of it. I wanted to position mine to a layman, kept asking myself "can I explain this to my Dad?"

I think where the post falls short is the absence of a silver bullet that contestants can use to win the game sooner.

[daturkel]

Thanks! Optimization was something I'd played with in previous rounds of coding up AYTO simulations, but not in the most recent version. (See the bottom section of this notebook [0]). There's also a very thorough treatment of the problem in a blog post from 2018 by SAS (the software company) [1]. It's surprising how many people have been drawn in by the allure of AYTO!

[0]: https://github.com/daturkel/pyto/blob/master/AYTO_S8.ipynb [1]: https://blogs.sas.com/content/operations/2018/08/14/are-you-...

[vasco]

And sometimes they just don't do better as a plot point, staying together an extra week after finding out they are not the one because of the intensity of their love (they met 4 days before)

[daturkel]

Giving them more credit than they probably deserve but: when you're solving "by hand" like they are in the show, keeping a known non-match couple together may actually be helpful for interpreting the results of a matchup ceremony because you'll know that that couple didn't contribute to the beams.

[vasco]

That's different, they do that also, but sometimes for the plot one couple intentionally mess those plans because the love is just too big.

[daturkel]

Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/55/