[lapcat]

> How many people would jump ship with Reed Hastings if you excommunicated him

By people do you mean voters or donors?

I suspect that approximately zero voters would care.

> which are the Republican voters who would be swayed to replace (and hopefully more-than-replace) them?

This is a false dichotomy. At this point, Republicans cannot be swayed by anything. Trump just said that Rob Reiner was murdered because of "Trump Derangement Syndrome". It's impossible for him to lose his loyal followers, no matter what he does or anyone else does.

Both major political parties are extremely unpopular among nonpartisans. They plug their noses and vote, if they vote at all. In the 2024 Presidential election, 37% of eligible voters voted for neither, mostly for nothing, whereas only 32% of eligible voters voted for Trump. Swing voters and nonvoters are not necessarily "moderate". That's a myth. They're nonpartisan, which is not to say that they're "between" the two parties. Many of them hardly even pay attention to politics. There's a lot of room to appeal to people who are disaffected with the system.

The most popular politician in the US is Bernie Sanders. And the reason is that he's the most popular politician among political independents. He's not the most popular politician among Democrats (which is why he lost the Democratic nomination), and obviously he's not the most popular politician among Republicans, but across the whole spectrum, he's more popular than anyone else.

It's also important to note that it wasn't until after the Reagan Presidency (and arguably due to its policies) that the ultra-wealthy came to monopolize most increases in personal income, so populism itself wouldn't have been as popular in the 1980s as it is now, as economic disparity has grown unabated in the decades since.

[SpicyLemonZest]

> By people do you mean voters or donors? I suspect that approximately zero voters would care.

I doubt anyone's polled this specific question, but I would encourage you to calibrate against voter support for, say, capitalism. Guess how many Americans support capitalism, look up the polled number, and see if it surprises you. Perhaps no voters would care about a personal vendetta against one or two specific people, but a lot of voters would care if Democrats took the position that capitalism is bad and we've got to fight it.

> This is a false dichotomy. At this point, Republicans cannot be swayed by anything. Trump just said that Rob Reiner was murdered because of "Trump Derangement Syndrome". It's impossible for him to lose his loyal followers, no matter what he does or anyone else does.

This is, again, an analysis that doesn't make much sense when you recognize that coalitions are not static. A number of Trump voters voted for Obama in 2008, felt for some reason or another that they had to "plug their noses and vote" for Trump, and will end up voting for whoever the next Democratic president is. One of the key reasons Sanders is relatively popular among non-Democrats is that he gets this and messages accordingly; his argument is never that some large group of voters is bad or unreachable, always that they've been tricked.

I personally think anyone who could ever vote for Trump is a terrible person, and would never be willing to solicit or rely on their support for anything, but that's why I'm not a politician.

[lapcat]

> Guess how many Americans support capitalism, look up the polled number, and see if it surprises you.

Guess how many Americans support Medicare For All, look up the polled number, and see if it surprises you.

None of the populist Democrats that I'm aware of have run on abolishing capitalism, not even self-described socialist Bernie Sanders. Not Mamdani either. It's just a question of how much of a role we allow the government in the capitalist system, how much regulation, and how many public services. Nobody thinks that the US is a socialist or communist country because we have the US Postal Service, for example, or a public military. Socialized medicine would not make the US non-capitalist either, any more than it does it Canada or Europe.

> A number of Trump voters voted for Obama in 2008

Yes, but they're obviously not Republicans! They're swing voters. Thus, what I said in your quotation of me does not apply to them. In 2020, Biden won swing voters, whereas in 2024, Trump won swing voters. They swing from one side to the other. They're not partisan, not loyal to a party or a person. This was my point: you can't move Republicans, but you can move independents, and there are actually a lot of independents.

In one year of "governing", Trump has already lost many independents. He's much more unpopular now than he was on election day. The ones who remain supportive are the loyalists. Last I checked the polls, over 85% of self-identified Republicans still approve. (And non-approval doesn't mean they wouldn't vote for him again, or would vote for a Democrat as opposed to not voting or voting for a right-wing 3rd party candidate.)

[SpicyLemonZest]

> Guess how many Americans support Medicare For All, look up the polled number, and see if it surprises you.

I predict that it's a large majority, >60%, and am unsurprised to see a poll saying 65% (https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/11/medicare-for-al...). As with universal background checks, the challenge is not coming up with a slogan that gets lots of support but refining it into a concrete policy proposal without losing too much.

If you were following politics during the Obama presidency, you'll recall the "you can keep your plan" saga, where a number of voters expected that healthcare reform shouldn't affect which doctors they can see or what coverage they have, a standard which even the ACA couldn't meet and no Medicare For All proposal could even approach. Another big problem is that the American Medical Association opposes Medicare For All, and people generally trust doctors more than politicians about healthcare.

> Yes, but they're obviously not Republicans! They're swing voters. Thus, what I said in your quotation of me does not apply to them. In 2020, Biden won swing voters, whereas in 2024, Trump won swing voters. They swing from one side to the other. They're not partisan, not loyal to a party or a person. This was my point: you can't move Republicans, but you can move independents, and there are actually a lot of independents.

Again, this is something where I'd encourage people to put themselves in Chuck Schumer's shoes. If you applied this attitude in the 1980s, you'd have to conclude that Democrats should simply give up on trying to win the presidency; there aren't enough swing voters, the Republican candidate keeps winning in blowouts, and certainly there's no point trying to compete in solid Republican states like California. If you're behind right now and want to start winning elections, you simply can't start from the premise that anyone who identifies with the other side is unreachable. It's true that the Republican candidate will always win the vast majority of self-identified Republicans, but the size and shape of that set can be greatly influenced by political strategy.

[lapcat]

> I predict that it's a large majority, >60%, and am unsurprised to see a poll saying 65%

Yes, and I don't think I'd be surprised about how many Americans support capitalism. I generally support capitalism.

> healthcare reform shouldn't affect which doctors they can see

> no Medicare For All proposal could even approach

Of course you couldn't keep your plan but why couldn't you keep your doctor when all doctors would be under the single government plan? It's not like the public loves health insurance companies.

> the American Medical Association opposes Medicare For All, and people generally trust doctors more than politicians about healthcare.

This seems like an equivocation. People don't necessarily trust doctors about politics. Moreover, trusting your doctor is not the same as trusting the AMA.

> Again, this is something where I'd encourage people to put themselves in Chuck Schumer's shoes.

Never.

> there aren't enough swing voters

Why in the world would you conclude that in the 1980s?

You know, Jimmy Carter did win in 1976, and was pretty close in California despite losing. (Carter had already become so unpopular in 1980 that he was primaried by Ted Kennedy, before he faced Reagan.) Dukakis was also pretty close in California. It's crucial to note that Ronald Reagan was the Governor of California, and Richard Nixon was Senator from California, so they had home state advantage there. Even poor Mondale won his home state of Minnesota. And note that California had a Democratic Governor (Jerry Brown) in 1980.

> If you're behind right now and want to start winning elections, you simply can't start from the premise that anyone who identifies with the other side is unreachable.

I would submit that 2020s Republicans are not 1980s Republicans. After decades of right-wing media indoctrination, Republicans are now detached from reality and believe all kinds of crazy things. Approving of Trump after everything Trump has said and done is not even remotely the same as approving of Reagan.