[dghlsakjg]

Huh?

Home PCs are as cheap as they’ve ever been. Adjusted for inflation the same can be said about “home use” Macs. The list price of an entry level MacBook Air has been pretty much the same for more than a decade. Adjust for inflation, and you get a MacBook air for less than half the real cost of the launch model that is massively better in every way.

A blip in high end RAM prices has no bearing on affordable home computing. Look at the last year or two and the proliferation of cheap, moderately to highly speced mini desktops.

I can get a Ryzen 7 system with 32gb of ddr5, and a 1tb drive delivered to my house before dinner tomorrow for $500 + tax.

That’s not depressing, that’s amazing!

[inferiorhuman]

  A blip in high end RAM prices 

It's not a blip and it's not limited to high end machines and configurations. Altman gobbled up the lion's share of wafer production. Look at that Raspberry Pi article that made it to the front page, that's pretty far from a high end Mac and according to the article's author likely to be exported from China due to the RAM supply crisis.

  I can get a Ryzen 7 system with 32gb of ddr5, and a 1tb drive delivered to my house
  before dinner tomorrow for $500 + tax.

B&H is showing a 7700X at $250 with their cheapest 32GB DDR5 5200 sticks at $384. So you've already gone over budget for just the memory and CPU. No motherboard, no SSD.

Amazon is showing some no-name stuff at $298 as their cheapest memory and a Ryzen 7700X at $246.

Add another $100 for an NVMe drive and another $70–100 for the cheapest AM5 motherboards I could find on either of those sites.

[dghlsakjg]

People that can reliably predict the future, especially when it comes to rising markets, are almost always billionaires. It is a skill so rare that it can literally make you the richest man on earth. Why should I trust your prediction of future markets that this pricing is the new standard, and will never go down? Line doesn’t always go up, even if it feels like it is right now, and all the tech media darlings are saying so.

If everything remains the same, RAM pricing will also. I have never once found a period in known history where everything stays the same, and I would be willing to bet 5 figures that at some point in the future I will be able to buy DDR5 or better ram for cheaper than today. I can point out that in the long run, prices for computing equipment have always fallen. I would trust that trend a lot more than a shortage a few months old changing the very nature of commodity markets. Mind you, I’m not the richest man on earth either, so my pattern matched opinion should be judged the same.

> B&H is showing a 7700X at $250 with their cheapest 32GB DDR5 5200 sticks at $384. So you've already gone over budget for just the memory and CPU. No motherboard, no SSD.

I didn't say I could build one from parts. Instead I said buy a mini pc, and then went and looked up the specs and price point to be sure.

The PC that I was talking about is here[https://a.co/d/6c8Udbp]. I live in Canada so translated the prices to USD. Remember that US stores are sometimes forced to hide a massive import tax in those parts prices. The rest of the world isn’t subject to that and pays less.

Edit: here’s an equivalent speced pc available in the US for $439 with a prime membership. So even with the cost of prime membership you can get a Ryzen 7 32gb 1tb for $455. https://www.amazon.com/BOSGAME-P3-Gigabit-Ethernet-Computer/...

[SunlitCat]

Don’t forget that many of these manufacturers operate with long-term supply contracts for components like RAM, maintain existing inventory, or are selling systems that were produced some time ago. That helps explain why we are still seeing comparatively low prices at the moment.

If the current RAM supply crisis continues, it is very likely that these kinds of offers will disappear and that systems like this will become more expensive as well, not to mention all the other products that rely on DRAM components.

I also don’t believe RAM prices will drop again anytime soon, especially now that manufacturers have seen how high prices can go while demand still holds. Unlike something like graphics cards, RAM is not optional, it is a fundamental requirement for building any computer (or any device that contains one). People don’t buy it because they want to, but because they have to.

In the end, I suspect that some form of market-regulating mechanism may be required, potentially through government intervention. Otherwise, it’s hard for me to see what would bring prices down again, unless Chinese manufacturers manage to produce DRAM at scale, at significantly lower cost, and effectively flood the market.

[inferiorhuman]

  People that can reliably predict the future

You don't need to be a genius or a billionaire to realize that when most of the global supply of a product becomes unavailable the remaining supply gets more expensive.

  here’s an equivalent speced pc available in the US for $439 with a prime membership.

So with prime that's $439+139 for $578 which is only slightly higher than the cost without prime of $549.99.

[dghlsakjg]

> You don't need to be a genius or a billionaire to realize that when most of the global supply of a product becomes unavailable the remaining supply gets more expensive.

Yes. Absolutely correct if you are talking about the short term. I was talking about the long term, and said that. If you are so certain would you take this bet: any odds, any amount that within 1 month I can buy 32gb of new retail DDR5 in the US for at least 10% less than the $384 you cited. (think very hard on why I might offer you infinite upside so confidently. It's not because I know where the price of RAM is going in the short term)

> So with prime that's $439+139 for $578 which is only slightly higher than the cost without prime of $549.99.

At this point I can't tell if you are arguing in bad faith, or just unfamiliar with how prime works. Just in case: You have cited the cost of prime for a full year. You can buy just a month of prime for a maximum price of $14.99 (that's how I got $455) if you have already used your free trial, and don't qualify for any discounts. Prime also allows cancellation within 14 days of signing up for a paid option, which is more than enough time to order a computer, and have it delivered, and cancel for a full refund.

So really, if you use a trial or ask for a refund for your prime fees the price is $439. So we have actually gotten the price a full 10% lower than I originally cited.

Edit: to eliminate any arguments about Prime in the price of the PC, here's an indentically speced mini PC for the same price from Newegg https://www.newegg.com/p/2SW-00BM-00002

[inferiorhuman]

  At this point I can't tell if you are arguing in bad faith, or just unfamiliar with how prime works. Just in case: You have cited the cost of prime for a full year.

Oh for the love of fuck. I don't subscribe to Prime or pay any attention to how it's priced. I've gotten offers for free trials of Prime before, should I just ignore that for most people Prime is something they have to pay for?

[dghlsakjg]

Bear with me:

Back at the start of our discourse, you tried to prove that a sub $500 computer can't exist by citing that B+H is selling sticks of 32gb of DDR5 for $384 while ignoring, or failing to find that they had 2 x 16 kits of Crucial branded RAM for $270 in stock when you made the claim. That deal is gone now at BH, but Best Buy has the exact same kit for $260 in stock right now (https://www.bestbuy.com/product/crucial-pro-32gb-2x16gb-ddr5...). Rather critically, the original post did NOT make any claims about the price of a 32GB RAM stick, it made a claim about the existence of a < $500 computer with 32GB of DDR5 and a Ryzen 7. I have definitively proven that multiple merchants in multiple countries can make good on that computer configuration at that price. That you CAN pay that much for RAM has nothing to do with my since proven claim about computer pricing.

You have said elsewhere that "a single entity bought more than 70% of the wafer production for the next year. That's across all types of memory modules." Based on reported industry rumors and press releases, OpenAI have made a non-binding agreement with two foundries that control 70% of the DRAM market for up to little more than half their output of raw DRAM wafers. That is a massive difference from buying 70% of the entire RAM market. Its a letter of intent for both foundries, and is very nebulous about that "up to" phrasing. Both of those deals was called a "Letter of Intent" by the foundry very specifically. If you aren't familiar, that specific phrase is typically used for a non-formalized agreement that has no legally enforceable provisions. No actual deal has been inked. I can understand how a misread happened, but not how you have such strong feelings on a story that you haven't understood the most basic details for. To summarize: not a deal in the legal/enforceable sense, not 70% of the global RAM or DRAM market, not all types of RAM, not even a firm commitment on the 40% of DRAM market from either party.

You say "I don't subscribe to Prime or pay any attention to how it's priced", but you somehow arrive on the only pricing option of the ~4 available options that undercuts what I am saying. I had to scroll to below the fold on google for "prime price" to get a single link that did not mention the lower monthly price in the search result. Even the google AI got it right. Yet, I am to give you the benefit of doubt that you have such specific, yet also profoundly limited, knowledge of the Prime program that you can cite the exact price of the yearly version of the product to prove a point, yet have no idea that a monthly subscription exists. A curiously specific ignorance.

There's more, but I'll move on.

I'm happy to accept your plea of ignorance, but it severely undercuts your arguments when you have to plea ignorance on the facts at the root of your arguments continually. It severely undercuts your plea of ignorance when every single number and fact you misquote happens to be an error in favor of your argument. People making mistakes in good faith tend not to make every single error in their own favor.

The worst part is, the position that RAM pricing will not drop has merit and is very arguable (although I don't agree given what I have seen so far). It is NOT a good thing for DRAM prices that OpenAI might have first dibs on a sizable minority of next years DRAM production. It is also not at all a given that that will be true. Continually using deceptively cherry picked, or outright wrong, numbers and info means that this conversation won't continue. I must insist on basing arguments in fact.

Thanks for the back and forth, for what it's worth. In any case, its always enlightening to get a good peak into how different people interpret numbers and facts, and arrive at their understanding of the world.

[r0b05]

What is your estimate for when memory prices will decrease?

I agree that we've seen similar fluctuations in the past and the price of compute trends down in the long-term. This could be a bubble, which it likely is, in which case prices should return to baseline eventually. The political climate is extremely challenging at this time though so things could take longer to stabilize. Do you think we're in this ride for months or years?

[dghlsakjg]

I can’t be more clear: specificity around predicting the future is close to impossible. There are 9 figure bets on both sides of the RAM issue, and strategic national concerns. I say that prices will go down at some point in the future for reasons highlighted already, but I have no clue when. Keep in mind what I myself have said about human ability to predict the future. You would be a fool to believe anyone’s specific estimates.

Maybe the AI money train stops after Christmas. The entire economy is fucked, but RAM is cheap.

Maybe we unlock AGI and the price sky rockets further before factories can get built.

There are just too many variables.

The real test is if someone had seen this coming, they would have made massive absurd investment returns just by buying up stock and storing it for a few months. Anyone who didn’t take advantage of that opportunity has proved that they had no real confidence in their ability to predict the future price of RAM. RAM inventory might have been one of the highest return investments possible this year. Where are all the RAM whales in Lambos who saw this coming?

As a corollary: we can say that unless you have some skin in the game and have invested a significant amount of your wealth in RAM chips, then you don’t know which way the price is going or when.

Extending that even further: people complaining about RAM prices being so high, and moaning that they bought less RAM because of it are actually signaling through action that they think that prices will go down or have leveled off. Anyone who believes that sticks of DDR5 RAM will continue the trend should be cleaning out Amazon, Best Buy and Newegg since the price will never be lower than today.

The distinct lack of serious people saying “I told ya so” with receipts, combined with the lack of people hoarding RAM to sell later is a good indirect signal that no one knows what is happening in the near term.

[sspiff]

Add to that a case, PSU and monitor and you're realitically over $1000

[jeroenhd]

> I can get a Ryzen 7 system with 32gb of ddr5, and a 1tb drive delivered to my house before dinner tomorrow for $500 + tax

That's an amazing price, but I'd like to see where you're getting it. 32GB of RAM alone costs €450 here (€250 if you're willing to trust Amazon's February 2026 delivery dates).

Getting a PC isn't that expensive, but after the blockchain hype and then the AI hype, prices have yet to come down. All estimations I've seen will have RAM prices increase further until the summer of next year, and the first dents in pricing coming the year after at the very earliest.

[dghlsakjg]

Amazon[0] link below. Equivalent systems also available at Newegg for the same price since someone nitpicked that you need a $15 prime membership to get that Amazon deal.

Shipping might screw you but here’s in stock 32gb kits of name brand RAM from a well known retailer in the US for $280[1].

Edit: same crucial RAM kit is 220GBP in stock at amazon[2]

(0)https://www.amazon.com/BOSGAME-P3-Gigabit-Ethernet-Computer/...

(1)https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1809983-REG/crucial_c...

(2) https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CTHXMYL8?tag=pcp0f-21&linkCode...

[behnamoh]

> Home PCs are as cheap as they’ve ever been.

just the 5090 GPU costs +$3k, what are you even talking about

[dghlsakjg]

“A computer in every home” (from the original post I was replying to) does not mean “A computer with the highest priced version of the highest priced optional accessory for computers in every home”

I’m talking about the hundreds of affordable models that are perfectly suitable for everything up to and including AAA gaming.

The existence of expensive, and very much optional, high end computer parts does not mean that affordable computers are not more incredible than ever.

Just because cutting edge high end parts are out of reach to you, does not mean that perfectly usable computers are too, as I demonstrated with actual specs and prices in my post.

That’s what I’m talking about.

[platevoltage]

Man you positively demolished that straw man.

How much as a base model MacBook Air changed in price over the last 15 years? With inflation, it's gotten cheaper.

[dghlsakjg]

Some numbers to drive your point home:

The original base MacBook Air sold for $1799 in 2008. The inflation adjusted price is $2715.

The current base model is $999, and literally better in every way except thickness on one edge.

If we constrain ourselves to just 15 years. The $999 MBA was released 15 years ago ($1488 in real dollars). The list price has remained the same for the base model, with the exception of when they sold the discontinued 11” MBAs for $899.

It’s actually kind of wild how much better and cheaper computers have gotten.

[morshu9001]

It's also gotten cheaper nominally. I just got a new base MBA for $750. Kinda surprised, like there has to be some catch.

[teaearlgraycold]

I feel bad for their competitors. We need good competition in the long run but over the last few years it's made less and less sense to get something other than an Apple laptop for most use cases.

[platevoltage]

I don't. They're being weighed down by Windows and to a lesser extent, x86. If they want to excel in the market, make a change. Use what Valve is doing as an example.

[morshu9001]

Also, the MBA vs MBP lineup is different now. MBP was the default choice before even for students, so MacBooks sorta started at $1300. Now the MBA is decent, and the MBP is really only for pros who need extra power and features.

[pests]

A home PC has to have a SOTA gpu?

[morshu9001]

Probably upset that the high-end video game "hobby" costs more than it used to. Used to be $1-2K for the very best gaming GPU of the time.

[selfhoster11]

I mean, yes. Very much so. People should be upset about a relatively affordable hobby getting to this point.

[heavyset_go]

Home calculators are cheap as they've ever been, but this era of computing is out of reach for the majority of people.

The analogous PC for this era requires a large amount of high speed memory and specialized inference hardware.

[dghlsakjg]

What regular home workload are you thinking of that the computer I described is incapable of?

You can call a computer a calculator, but that doesn’t make it a calculator.

Can they run SOTA LLMs? No. Can they run smaller, yet still capable LLMs? Yes.

However, I don’t think that the ability to run SOTA LLMs is a reasonable expectation for “a computer in every home” just a few years into that software category even existing.

[buu700]

It's kind of funny to see "a computer in every home" invoked when we're talking about the equivalent of ~$100 buying a non-trivial percentage of all computational power in existence at the time of the quote. By the standards of that time, we don't just have a computer in every home, we have a supercomputer in every pocket.

[atonse]

You can have access to a supercomputer for pennies, internet access for very little money, and even an m4 Mac mini for $500. You can have a raspberry pi computer for even less. And buy a monitor for a couple hundred dollars.

I feel like you’re twisting the goalposts to make your point that it has to be local compute to have access to AI. Why does it need to be local?

Update: I take it back. You can get access to AI for free.

[platevoltage]

No it doesn't. The majority of people aren't trying to run Ollama on their personal computers.