[jimbokun]

The one about LLMs and mental health is not a prediction but a current news report, the way you phrased it.

Also, the boring consistent progress case for AI plays out in the end of humans as viable economic agents requiring a complete reordering of our economic and political systems in the near future. So the “boring but right” prediction today is completely terrifying.

[p-e-w]

“Boring” predictions usually state that things will continue to work the way they do right now. Which is trivially correct, except in cases where it catastrophically isn’t.

So the correctness of boring predictions is unsurprising, but also quite useless, because predicting the future is precisely about predicting those events which don’t follow that pattern.