[seanmcdirmid]

China doesn’t have the infrastructure or logistics to wage a far from home operation against a similar power country (let alone the USA). They might get there in a decade or two, but right now there isn’t much they can do besides provide material support.

Their whole move to EVs is more about national security as it is about environment. Not having to get into wars about oil because you don’t need so much is it’s own freedom.

[riku_iki]

> China doesn’t have the infrastructure or logistics to wage a far from home operation against a similar power country (let alone the USA).

they can totally do asymmetrical actions:

- deploy submarines which could attack offenders

- rather fast develop large quantity of ocean attack drones (even Ukraine could do it with rather limited industrial capabilities)

[JumpCrisscross]

> deploy submarines which could attack offenders

While letting U.S. kit paint the submarines they'll presumably want to use on Taiwan.

> fast develop large quantity of ocean attack drones

This is plausible. (Still not worth it for Beijing. But doable.)

[seanmcdirmid]

They could sell on credit submarines, drones, and so on to Venezuela, along with some training. They could even make it into a war by proxy, but asymmetrical by the Chinese themselves? They have too much to lose to do that these days.

[nradov]

Lol what a joke. It would take a Chinese SSN about a month just to make the transit. By the time they reached the op area it would be almost time to turn around and go home.

[riku_iki]

Tensions in region started few months ago, so assets could be deployed already.

Also, my bet Maduro will still endure multiple months from now.

[nradov]

Nah. Chinese submarines aren't that quiet so if there were any in the area then the US Navy would have them localized already and there's no sign of that. And Chinese subs lack the persistence to stick around without support for long. The reality is there are zero Chinese subs anywhere near Venezuela.

[riku_iki]

Thank you for your theoretical speculations.

[cosmicgadget]

Submarines needing support isn't theoretical.

[nradov]

You bet! I'm always happy to educate people who don't understand this stuff.

[Gud]

Why, do you think the Chinese believe this illegal blockade by the US will cease?

China would be stupid not to show some force

[nradov]

Regardless of legal issues and whether it would be stupid or not, China still lacks an effective blue water navy capable of projecting sustained power in the Caribbean Sea. They just can't do it in any meaningful way. They're expanding fast and might be able to do it in a few years but not today.