[johnfn]

This suggests that the best way to grade predictions is some sort of weighting of how unlikely they were at the time. Like, if you were to open a prediction market for statement X, some sort of grade of the delta between your confidence of the event and the “expected” value, summed over all your predictions.

[jacquesm]

Exactly, that's the element that is missing. If there are 50 comments against and one pro and that pro has it in the longer term then that is worth noticing, not when there are 50 comments pro and you were one of the 'pros'.

Going against the grain and turning out right is far more valuable than being right consistently when the crowd is with you already.

[mcmoor]

Yeah a simple of total points of pro comments vs total points of con comments may be simple and exact enough to simulate a prediction market. I don't know if it can be included in the prompt or better to be vibecoded in directly.