| I'll take the other side of the bet. Human intelligence seems likely to be a few tricks we just haven't figured out yet. Once we figure it out, we'll probably remark on how simple a model it is. We don't have the necessary foundation to get there yet. (Background context, software/hardware ecosystem, understanding, clues from other domains, enough people spending time on it, etc.) But one day we will. At some point people will try to run human-level AGI intelligences on their Raspberry Pi. I'd almost bet that will be a game played in the future - run human-level AGI intelligences on as low a spec machine as possible. I also wonder what it would be like if the AGI / ASI timeline coincide with our ability to do human brain scans at higher fidelity. And that if they do line up, that we might try replicating our actual human thoughts and dreams on our future architectures as we make progress on AGI. If those timelines have anything to do with one another, then when we crack AGI, we might also be close to "human brain uploads". I wouldn't say it's a necessary precondition, but I'd bet it would help if the timelines aligned. And I know the limits of detection right now and in the foreseeable future are abysmal. So AGI and even ASI probably come first. But it'd be neat if they were close to parallel. |