[graemep]

> GDP per capita has been declining in the UK

not true:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CN?location...

There were declines in 2009 andd 2020, for reasons that out to be fairly obvious, but overall consistent growth

> that also means retaliatory barriers from the EU, which is still the largest trading partner (41% of exports, twice the volume to the 2nd export market, which is the US

However, trade with the EU was declining as a proportion of total trade even before Brexit, is exaggerated by transshipment, and does not have as significant benefits as trading with economies with different strengths (i.e. more comparative advantage)

[mytailorisrich]

It is true [1][2]. I don't know how the graph you quote is calculated (no inflation?) but clearly the GDP hasn't grown 30% since 2020 (31,516 to 41,184), LOL. 6% growth a year would be a wet dream anywhere in the developped world. The GDP grew only 1.3% over the last 12 months and the population had grown 1.1% over the preceding 12 months... So at best economic growth barely exceeds population growth but overall it's flat to down.

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/times...

[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

> However, trade with the EU was declining as a proportion of total trade even before Brexit

Yes, it has slightly declined, probably because of Brexit. The point is that it is one thing to say that we are "free" to do as we please, but the reality is not so simple if that means taking a massive hit on 41% of our exports! This is the whole Brexit story.

[graemep]

> the reality is not so simple if that means taking a massive hit on 41% of our exports

Is it actually 41%? Is it a massive hit? What is the economic impact of small trade frictions on a declining proportion of exports. The main reason for the decline is not Brexit, it is that the EU is a declining proportion of the world economy because Europe is the slowest growing region of the world.

> This is the whole Brexit story.

No, it really is not. Similar economies in the EU are doing about as badly as the UK so you cannot blame Brexit

> So at best economic growth barely exceeds population growth but overall it's flat to down.

One of the replies to my comment links to a graph at constant currency and is shows low growth so you might stretch to flat/stagnant, but definitely not down.

[mytailorisrich]

In your strange haste to prove me wrong you have not taken the time to read my comment.

Yes, currently 41% of UK exports go to the EU.

The point is that we have a deal with the EU for access. But that might change. If we went low tax/low regs the EU may very well retaliate by putting barriers to trade with us. This would seriously hurt our exports (a "big hit"...). Hence, reality of being "free to do what we want" outisde of the EU is not so simple.

This is the whole Brexit story because that has been the debate of "freedom" vs "alignment" and issues of access to EU market since the Brexit referendum.

> but definitely not down.

The graph shows a decline, as said and repeated... Obviously not over the long term but I never suggested that.

[graemep]

> The graph shows a decline

If you pick a time period over which that is true. That proves what exactly? European economies did badly in 2023?

> If we went low tax/low regs the EU may very well retaliate by putting barriers to trade with us.

The same applies to any free trade agreement, or exporting anywhere, as the US has recently proved.

The EU would also lose from higher trade barriers.

[blitzar]

> but overall consistent growth

Gunna need to inflation adjust that one bud, its not decline, but it is not great.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KN?location...

[graemep]

Thanks, I meant to link to a constant number.

It still debunks the post I replied to.

its not great, but very similar to the closest comparable economies: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KN?end=2024...

[mytailorisrich]

Why do you feel the need to "debunk" my comment especially when the data do show the decline of GDP per capita I mentioned? Of course you'll always be able to claim that I was wrong by picking a suitable baseline year... But why? My point was to highlight how the lack of growth is a big issue.

Do you have something constructive to discuss on the topic of the article?

[graemep]

> Why do you feel the need to "debunk" my comment

Because its wrong. Look at the graph. it shows some years of decline (Covid and the 2008 financial crisis) but overall there has been growth over the long term.

If you are now claiming "growth has been too low" I agree that the UK's economy, like other western European economies, has been stagnant with only 7% growth over the last decade.

[mytailorisrich]

Exactly as predicted you are now claiming that I am still wrong by picking a suitable timescale instead of discussing the point. As already said in another comment the graph does show a decline as 2024 is still below 2019, especially with a drop in 2023 (which corresponds to the highest annual population growth on record).

I don't know why you are doing that (using narrowest possible interpretation of what I wrote to "prove me wrong" and "debunk") but you are not commenting anything constructive or substantial.

[graemep]

OK, so your claim of decline is true if you carefully pick the right timescale. I do not think that approach is reasonable.

The UK economy (in common with other European economies) did badly in 2023 which proves what exactly?

[mytailorisrich]

That shows a decline compared to 2019: 35,193 in 2019, 35,108 in 2024. Overall GDP is up over the period because of population growth. All as per my original comment.

[blitzar]

I am far more concerned that it is not meaningfully changed since 2007 - the year that iPhones came into existence.

[graemep]

we did have the financial crisis and covid in that time.

On the other hand, I think this chart shows a clear long term trend all the same: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?end=2...