A note on your "IBM has been shrinking" take: IBM spun out Kyndryl in 2021, including 90,000 employees [0]. That leaves the remaining company with 255,000 employees after the spin-off in 2021, which means it has actually grown by 15,000 people to reach the 270,000 in 2024.
The spin-off also explains the drop in revenue. In 2021, the first results reported excluding Kyndryl, IBM had revenues of $57.4B [1].
Since 2021, revenue grew by ~9% to reach $62.75B in 2024.
Fair. A good callout. And maybe the right move. However, a healthy IBM would not have needed to calve off its entire Global Technology Services business.