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by whimsicalism 198 days ago
Share of budget is actually a terrible way to look at this because the budget itself has exploded, and that ratio hides most of the real modern risk.

Interest costs in the 80s spiked because high rates were applied to a much smaller debt base. Today we have the opposite problem: rates that are high compared to the 2010s are now rolling onto a massively larger stock of debt. We’ve only just started to refinance that debt at the new levels, so the full impact hasn’t even shown up yet. We are still seeing significant inflation (meaning rates still have upwards room to grow), beginning signs of an economic pullback, are beginning to see signs of a Fed unwilling to raise rates sufficiently due to the impact on the fiscal environ, etc.
1 comments
akamaka 198 days ago
If you compare government budget as share of GDP, you can see that is hasn’t “exploded”, outside of crisis periods. Current spending rate is elevated about 25% over the 1990s period of restraint, but quite close to the 1980s.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

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whimsicalism 198 days ago
You keep switching between flows and stocks and what you want your numerator and denominator to be, why wouldn't I just look at real spending and real debt numbers - ie. the number we ultimately have to pay interest on?

GDP % is only relevant if we are politically able to raise taxes.

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akamaka 198 days ago
Both of the charts I posted have GDP as the denominator (although I incorrectly said the first was “share of budget”).

I think it’s very important to use GDP as a denominator, because otherwise you’ll be stuck crying wolf, saying “debt always keeps going up” even during the good times.

There are a lot of people who simply don’t believe that the government budget needs a trim right now, because people have been continuously saying there was a debt crisis even when the financial situation was relatively favorable.

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Libidinalecon 198 days ago
You know why Japan is fine with 236% debt to gdp?

Because measuring things against GDP like this is completely meaningless.

If you use your brain for even the slightest moment it would be completely obvious that the sum total amount of a debit is a huge deal because of scale of the interest.

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