[lesuorac]

> This suggests that the downloader knew that the OBR was going to make this mistake, and they were polling the server waiting for the file to appear.

I think most of the tech world heard about the Nobel Peace Prize award so it doesn't seem that suspicious to me that somebody would just poll urls.

Especially since before the peace prize there have been issues with people polling US economic data.

My point is strictly, knowledge that they should poll a url is not evidence of insider activity.

[accoil]

How does the Nobel Peace Prize figure into this? I seem to be on the other side that didn't hear about the award. Which is not surprising as I don't follow it, but also I haven't worked out query terms to connect it with OBR.

[lesuorac]

Somebody monitored the metadata on files to figure out who the winner of the nobel prize was prior to the official announcements by the candidate that was modified. Which they used to financially profit in betting markets.

It relates to OBR because it's another scenario where people just by polling the site can figure out information that wasn't supposed to be released yet. And then use that information to profit.

Since a recent event of polling was in the news the idea of polling isn't really evidence of an insider trying to leak data versus somebody just cargo-culting a technique. Plus polling of financial data was already common.

[earl_gray]

Thank you for answering that person’s question so clearly. I was also in the dark and this really helped.

[jjmarr]

Because it was insider traded on Polymarket many hours before it was publicly announced.