[Yoric]

Do you have data on that?

All the abusers I've heard of by name were in the category of "some we unfortunately didn't know about" (with the exception of the Epstein clique, I imagine, which were more in the category of "some we collectively didn't want to know about").

[vacuity]

No data, and I imagine there isn't much to say either way, since collecting the data is difficult at best.

I think part of the discrepancy is that you're talking about abusers you've "heard of by name". The other is that people like Weinstein and Epstein clearly have power, and by default the powerful are left to their own devices (of course their victims and many others around are aware, but don't speak up). I think that, knowing that, one can calibrate a more accurate predictor. I think, if one hangs around a crowd long enough, one can typically gauge who's who in that crowd.

[Yoric]

I don't think it's that easy.

A friend of mine was sexually abused by a family member. To this day, the family refuses to believe it. I've heard of other stories among people I know. None of the abusers were flagged out as creeps until the story came out.

Almost all the only cases I've heard of easy-to-spot creeps doing the abuse are among the rich & powerful, and it's possible they might be considered easy-to-scope solely because it was already known that they were abusers.

The one case of abuse by easy-to-spot creep I've heard of among my circle was that that of a rape in a high school, by a 15yo who had been flagged as dangerous in his previous high school, and nobody acted upon it in the new high school because the file had apparently been lost in transfer (possibly at the behest of the parents).

So, my anecdata suggests that profiling is hard.

[vacuity]

You may be right. I made too strong of a statement; there is too much variability even if some good predictive features are used. I believe that it is not too difficult to identify groups where one group has significantly higher risk of being abusive than another group. In particular, people tend to be sexually abused by people close to them[0]. Especially in the context of family, there are probably some people who know and cover up the abuse. I don't believe that most people can hide their inner selves from everyone. For instance, I sometimes hear that celebrities who are rotten on the inside were actually known to be so for years by staff and some ordinary people. If we could conduct honest interviews of people, I imagine a lot of not-so-secrets would come out.

[0] https://womens-safety.com/blog/rapists-often-familiar-faces-...