[amunicio]

Investors have a lot of faith in Elan because of his track record of achieving very unlikely challenges (design and mass produce electric cars, design and launch rockets, ...).

The problem is that a lot of its supporters and investors cannot distinguish between solving complicated problems (the ones Elon Musk excels at) and complex problems (the ones Elon Musk is trying solve now: FSD, robotics, etc...).

For reference, a complicated problem is one that you can break down into pieces and solve each individual piece within some tolerance and as a result solve the whole problem. For example, how do I build a rocket that can get X kg of load at a given orbit or how do I design an electric car to transport 4 people 200 miles.

Complex problems are problems you cannot break into pieces and plan for before hand, usually because you have unknown unknows and you have a lot of feedback loops (when you change something it changes something else you though you had already solved). This are the types of challenges Elon is taking on now: FSD, robotics, etc...

[spwa4]

What I thought was very revealing though is that Blue Origin's New Glenn mission will actually beat SpaceX to Mars. In fact no SpaceX rocket has ever done anything in relation to Mars.

And starlink is nothing but an evolution of many networks that already exist, most famously Iridium, but couldn't make it work commercially due to satellite cost.

Meanwhile the Blue Origin launched ESCAPADE satellites will establish a 24/7 telecommunications link between the Mars surface and Earth, in addition to their research goals, in September 2027.