[ahwelatif]

The US's master plan for aiding Taiwan revolves around assuming China will magically forget that transport helicopters exist and then dumbly force their entire armed forces into 1940's Higgins boats for conga line suicide charges into Taiwans most defended + mined beaches.

...It should go without saying that these are brain dead assumptions. China definitely has a much better plan than this.

[imtringued]

AIM-120D have a theoretical range of 180 km. Transport helicopters are an easy picking and could be shot down before they even leave the mainland.

[AtlasBarfed]

Taiwan is basically a mountain fortress island. And drones only make it far more so. You think transport helicopters could penetrate modern drone flotillas? You think the landing boats of WWII are vulnerable?

Higgins boats are CHEAP and move a lot of soldiers. Helicopters are EXPENSIVE and easily downed and move less soldiers and equipment.

The general tone of the dissenters is that mainland China is competent, and Taiwan is incompetent. If anything, it is likely to be the opposite. The CCP is a purged autocratic cult at this point with full communication and coordination breakdowns in basic government functions.

IMO, Xi and China are coasting on the Deng Xiaoping reform effects. Mainland China is an ossifying and crumbling state, they simply have so much momentum that it doesn't seem like it. Everyone with offshored manufacturing is attempting to move it from China. That's a multi-decade trend, but it's still the trend. Of the entire world.

[cafard]

Corregidor was a mountain fortress island.

[AtlasBarfed]

Did Corregidor have MANPADs? Antiship missiles? Antiaircraft missiles?

Corregidor had improper stocks of supplies it appears.

They were using horse cavalry?

Did Corregidor have its own defensive air wing?

Did Corregidor have 150,000 defenders? Or just 15,000?

The Japanese were a battle-tested navy and army and airforce at that point, after dozens of imperial conflicts as well as the Sino-Russian wars.

The Chinese military are almost entirely untested, and likely riddled with corruption. A Chinese invasion will almost certainly involve a plan that looks like it's what an invasion plan looks like when reported to the CCP, but it won't be an experience-informed battle plan, nor am I sure the Chinese military will be able to handle the "battle plans are great until you get punched in the face".

Is it a sure defense for Taiwan against a full force invasion? Of course not. Is it a guaranteed victory for mainland China? Of course not.

The political risk to Xi is high. Even with a successful invasion, and an embargo/blockade, it could politically topple the CCP. A failed invasion would likely involve a highly destabilizing embargo/blockage that could similarly topple the CCP.