[saulpw]

> How many large customers are lining up to pay top dollar to rent one of those 5 year-olds for the next 12 months?

If it's depreciated over 6 years then at 5 years it's valued at 17% of its initial price. That seems kind of reasonable?

[nobodywillobsrv]

Yes, I think it's worth getting details ... like my mental model is that everything within 2x is sort of reasonable error. Looking for 10x errors and cliff edges like in the 2007 crisis where I think a good anecdote is like default prob assumptions being 2% and then realized to 30% (15x).

Is 15x error in realized GPU + the debt AFTER INFLATION? I suppose but feels less likely except in some tail scenarios that have other interesting properties.

This doesn't mean that there isn't a significant possibility of market correction due to other factors but the GPU factor just seems medium sized compared to other scenarios historically. Am I missing anything in the 1st order thinking?