[DoctorOetker]

Sorry to hijack you: I have some questions regarding current weather models:

I am personally not interested in predicting the weather as end users expect it, rather I am interested in representative evolutions of wind patterns. I.e. specify some location (say somewhere in the North Sea, or perhaps on mainland Western Europe), and a date (say Nov 12) without specifying a year, and would like to have the wind patterns at different heights for that location say for half an hour. Basically running with different seeds, I want to have representative evolutions of the wind vector field (without specifying starting conditions, other than location and date, i.e. NO prior weather).

Are there any ML models capable of delivering realistic and representative wind gust models?

(The context is structural stability analysis of hypothetical megastructures)

[counters]

I mean - you don't need any ML for that. Just go grab random samples from a ~30 day window centered on your day of interest over the region of interest from a reanalysis product like ERA5. If the duration of ERA5 isn't sufficient (e.g. you wouldn't expect on average to see events with a >100 year return period given the limited temporal extent of the dataset) then you could take one step further and pull from an equilibrium climate model simulation - some of these are published as part of the CMIP inter-comparison, or you could go to special-built ensembles like the CESM LENS [1]. You could also use a generative climate downscaling model like NVIDIA's Climate-in-a-bottle, but that's almost certainly overkill for your application.

[1]: https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/community-projects/lens

[DoctorOetker]

The ERA5 seems to give hourly data, i.e. nyquist limit would thus give decent oscillation amplitudes for waves with periods of about 5 hours or more, whereas I am more interested in faster timescales seconds, minutes, i.e. wind gusts.

Calculating the stability and structural requirements for a super-chimney to the tropopause, would require representative higher temporal frequency wind fields

Do you know if I can extract such a high time resolution from LENS since a cursory look at ERA5 showed a time resolution of just 1 hour?

The advantage of an ML model is that its usually possible to calculate the joint probability for a wind field, or to selectively generate a dataset with N-th percentile wind fields etc.

If its differentiable, and the structural stress assumptions are known, then one can "optimize" towards wind profiles that are simultaneously more dangerous and more probable, to identify what needs adressing. Thats why an ML model of local wind patterns would be desirable. ML is more than just LLM's. What one typically complains of in the context of LLM's: that there's no error bars on the output, is not entirely correct: just like differentiable ML models for physical and other phenomena they too allow to calculate the joint probability of sentences, except instead of modeling natural phenomena it is modelling what humans uttered in the corpus (or implicit corpus after RLHF etc). A base model LLM can quite accurately predict the likelihood of a human expressing a certain phrase, but thats modeling human expressions, not their validity. An ML model trained on actual weather data, or fine grained simulated weather data results in comparatively more accurate probability distributions, because physics isn't much of an opinion.