[diamond559]

Why do you think Jeffery Gundlach is wrong when he just said literally everything is overvalued? Everyone knew it was a bubble in 2001 and in 1929, that's part of being a bubble, it doesn't make sense but it just keeps going up ignoring all risks. Is there liquidity for a little more yeah maybe, but when everyone is long and highly leveraged there is only one way for things eventually to go.

[bofadeez]

That person is not even an academic. At least google Eugene Fama so you don't embarrass yourself like this.

What does Ja Rule think about bubbles? Ask him why markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[diamond559]

I do know who he is, why do you assume I don't, just so you think you can appear smart on the internet? Pretty pathetic. Gundalach has better investing success than you and Fama, you should listen to what he says instead of just assume he's wrong, that's called being intellectually dishonest.

[bofadeez]

Yeah I guess you fundamentally misunderstand the difference/significance between someone who is seeking objective peer-reviewed truth and someone who tries to seduce investors to put money into their fund for fees on the internet with wild theories and anecdotal gambling success. It's not your fault, you must be a teenager or something.

[diamond559]

Why are you so angry buddy, are you way overinvested in tech or something? What are you even trying to argue, that it's impossible to value the market?

[bofadeez]

Yeah markets are disconnected from fundamentals. Conduct causal inference with any fundamental metric on forward returns and you'll see they have almost zero predictive ability. That supports the efficient market hypothesis, as do many many other observations.

If you could simply "value the market" in some analytical way, then any simple neural network would (universally) approximate it. Instead you see the vast vast majority of machine learning quant funds fail. Here are the specific details as to why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRUlSm4gdQ4

[diamond559]

So how was I able to make money on both crashes this year and buy the bottom in 2022, how did Burry know it was a bubble in 2008, how did Greenspan know it in the late 1990s? Humans act irrationally, they get overconfident and overreach then things pull back, boom/busts in specific industries and whole economies have happened since the beginning of history. We humans only have so many ways to value a company and us investors all look at the same ones, we have jobs though that require us to put values to these assets for our clients. This is how human emotions and psychology gets into the market. Fama might be right it's impossible to mathematically predict the exact day and time the bubble will crash, but that doesn't mean the obvious bubble we are seeing isn't a bubble.