[simonw]

You appear to be arguing against using technology to boost human efficiency on a forum full of software engineers who've dedicated their careers to building software that makes humans more efficient.

If we aren't doing that then why are we building software?

[thewebguyd]

Because the stated goal of generative AI is not to make an individual more efficient, it's to replace that individual all together and completely eliminate the bottom rungs of the professional career ladder.

Historically software that made humans more efficient resulted in empowerment for the individual, and also created a need for new skilled roles. Efficiency gains were reinvested into the labor market. More people could enter into higher paying work.

With generative AI, if these companies achieve their stated goals, what happens to the wealth generated by the efficiency?

If we automate agriculture and manufacturing, the gain is distributed as post-scarciaty wealth to everyone.

If we automate the last few remaining white-collar jobs that pay a living wage, the gain is captured entirely by the capital owners & investors via elimination of payroll, while society only loses one of its last high-paying ladders for upward mobility.

Nobody lost their career because we built a faster operating system or a better compiler. With generative AI's stated goals, any efficiency gains are exclusively for those at the very top, while everyone else gets screwed.

Now, I'll concede and say, that's not the AI companies' fault. I'm not saying we shouldn't magically stop developing this technology, but we absolutely need our governments to start thinking about the ramifications it can have and start seriously considering things like UBI to be prepared for when the bottom falls out of the labor market.

[simonw]

Thanks, that's a well argued comment.

I'm not a fan of of the "replace workers with AI" thing myself - I'm much more excited about AI as augmentation for existing workers so they can take on more challenging tasks.

[knollimar]

Does the future productivity growth that would have been gained later (due to more junior engineers not entering the field) outweigh the AI gains?

If it's just the little productivity boost now, I think it's a net negative if hiring trends continue.

I think it's a discussion to be had but talent pool is a tragedy of the commons situation.