[sien]

If they can hit $3 / gallon why does it matter?

Tesla's cars are wildly price inefficient because they cost $100K. For 10K you can get a decent car that has 4 times the range. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster

How many gallons of fuel can you get for 90K?

They are nice toys for rich people. Perhaps there is a market for that. Good luck to them.

But for mass transit unless you can get the price of the batteries to plummet it just does not work.

[ta12121]

$3 a gallon is what the fuel costs today when it comes straight out of the ground. Claiming to be able to build and run a nuclear reactor and then synthesize the fuel through multiple energy inefficient steps all for the same price is a pipe dream.

[danielharan]

It's not competing against the price straight out of the ground; it's competing against fuel that's been refined and delivered to a moving ship somewhere potentially very far away. Instead of $3 a gallon, it could be up to 10X more.

[antidoh]

And, dollar cost of the fuel is not the only cost of maintaining a "long supply tail." There's also the dollar cost of all the ships and sailors on that tail, and there's the logistical opportunity costs: we have to protect that tail with military resources that might otherwise have gone to more directly military purposes, and the head of the tail (the military activity at the front) is held back and slowed down by a "heavier" supply tail.

This doesn't eliminate the tail (we still have to deliver ammunition, lubricating oil, food etc. to the fleet) and it doesn't eliminate replenishment at sea (we still have to get that stuff from supply vehicles to ships), but it does lighten the supply load and create more military options.

[danielharan]

Exactly. Less replenishment means more flexibility.

Lots of people killed by IEDs on long supply lines in Afghanistan is an extreme example of the human and military costs. Some of those died to fuel A/C for uninsulated tents... madness.

[ta12121]

The amount of energy needed to refine crude oil is much less than the energy it takes to synthesize it. Think about it: people refine the crude, transport it, and use the end product in an energy net positive manner. To synthesize hydrocarbon fuel, you need to put in at least the amount of energy you're going to store, and with current technology probably 2 times as much at least due to inefficiencies. Then you need to still account for building and running the nuclear reactor. Try to imagine the systems as a whole, the number of steps and losses at each step. The scheme does not make sense.

1) uranium -> nuclear power -> expensive synthesis -> local transport -> fuel

2) uranium -> nuclear power -> transmission lines -> charging batteries

3) crude oil -> refinement -> transport -> fuel

EDIT: Found a reference from another comment: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process... It says that the input energy is 2-4 times the stored energy for synthesized hydrocarbon fuel.

[danielharan]

Asking me to imagine a system as a whole doesn't prove your argument.

Instead of the energy system, consider the cost of military supply lines. There's more than the financial cost of delivery; long supply lines are vulnerable to attack and disruption. You don't need to imagine an example: consider IEDs in Afghanistan. Many of those were trucks delivering food and fuel to bases. Efficiency (i.e. insulating tents so less fuel is needed for A/C) results in less deliveries and less deaths.

The same principle applies at sea. Oil ships are a vulnerability and another thing to plan, as well as a major cost that can be more important than the energy efficiency issues.

[ta12121]

I missed the part where you brought the argument back to the military. Yes, it makes sense for the military, as I acknowledged in my original post. The Parent, however was claiming that electric cars for general use are made moot by this technology, which is certainly not the case.

[wpietri]

You're cheating.

Telsa, like many startups, is pursuing a low-volume, price-insensitive market first. That helps pay for all sorts of startup and R&D costs, and lets them work out issues before they scale. Their long-term goal is, per Wikipedia, "eventually mass producing fully electric cars at a price affordable to the average consumer".

There are several fully electric vehicles in production that cost $35k.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_production_battery_elec...

They have a substantially lower cost of operation than gas-powered vehicles, so they are plausibly cheaper to operate over the lifetime of the car:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf#Operating_costs

And over the long term, expecting batteries to get better is a pretty good bet. Everybody from Apple to Toyota is eager for battery improvements.

[wisty]

Telsa cars are expensive for the same reason Ferraris are - they target people who want bling.

A mass-produced commuter could be much cheaper, but there's a huge risk. Tesla aims to reduce the risk by validating the market, solving technical problems, creating infrastructure (recharge stations) and solving social problems (convincing people that range doesn't always matter, and educating them on the strengths and weaknesses of electric cars).

A low total-cost (including fuel and maintenance) electric car can probably be produced, but it's not the Tesla's top model.

[rhizome]

In non-currency terms, this sounds a lot like Unix-Windows arguments 15 years ago. If you can bundle Windows, why does it matter what computer you get? For 1/10 the price you can get a great Windows PC with 10 times more software. Tesla Roadster being like an SGI or Solaris box, Linux/FreeBSD is just for snobby nerds who like to tinker. Unless you can make it easier to use it just does not work.

[jnw2]

Mass transit has some advantages with predictable trip lengths: no transit agency is going to insist that they need a bus that can go 200 miles on a charge if their average bus only travels 50 miles each morning. Meanwhile, the average consumer ``needs'' car with a battery that is several times what their 99th percentile trip length is.