[xp84]

Especially given that odds are better than 50% that you will find yourself in a new, larger Russia at some point in the next 5-10 years. Not cheering the prospect, but it seems like Putin knows the US won’t get involved in Europe anymore, and therefore Russian expansion into all former Soviet territory, at minimum, just makes sense.

[polotics]

Latvia is more likely to defend itself successfully than Ukraine, Latvia joined NATO in 2004, an aggression there spells the end of the whole Russian oil industry, and after that Russia's North Korea.

[xp84]

NATO is dead. Latvia, if defended, will be defended only by anemic EU forces. Trump has made clear that he views alliances as purely transactional, and he’s obviously correct that due to geography the US has nothing to fear from any non-nuclear scenario. Therefore, I doubt either Europe or America will honor Article 5 for the other anymore.