[0xrelogic]

Analyzed Q3 2025 earnings data from UBS and found China's AI story is actually two separate cycles with 12-18 month lag between them.

• Mainland hardware suppliers (optical transceivers, servers): +34-57% earnings growth NOW

• Innolight hit $3.3B revenue (+122% YoY) from datacenter buildout

• Hong Kong internet platforms (Alibaba Cloud, Tencent): still in capex phase, monetization projected 2H26

• Alibaba e-commerce AI already break-even with +12% ROAS

The gap between these cycles matters for positioning. Hardware is paying off today, cloud is a 2026 call option.

Happy to discuss the optical transceiver data or enterprise adoption timelines.