[gruez]

>nearly every small uptick is followed by a large uptick.

I'm not really seeing it aside from "there's a large uptick because there's eventually a recession".

[disambiguation]

To rephrase, the start of a large uptick looks like a small one in real time - like we see now.

Further, the graph is otherwise smooth. We don't really see small bumps - 1 or 2 exceptions not reassuring.