[johngalt]

The technology cycle generally goes:

1. A few big wins causes a huge bubble.

2. Tons of sub standard tech workers jump on the bandwagon for the money. In some cases these are outright con artists.

3. Average skill plummets as the market is flooded with cheap beginners and pretenders.

4. Market implodes. Everyone jumps off the sinking ship. Only people who stay are dedicated to the field regardless of market dynamics.

5. With all the pretenders and con-artists out of the way a few passionate geniuses build a few big wins. GOTO:1

Throughout this cycle the same people who support massive layoffs during downturns will wonder why there aren't thousands of engineers with 10 years experience during upswings.

[dccoolgai]

I call this the tech "circle of life". You can trace the occurence of stage 2 pretty closely by spikes in the number of people majoring in CS. You can make a ton of money by investing in tech companies at stage 4/5 and selling at stage 2/3.

[panda_person]

Everyone is a beginner at some point.

[tokenadult]

Everyone is a beginner at some point.

True enough. On the other hand, some people stay beginners much longer than others.