[hollerith]

>[Yudkowsky] didn't even think we would survive past the end of the year [2022].

This is flat-out false. I will send $50 (in the form of a personal check or bitcoin) to the first person that can link to anything written or said by Yudkowsky since 2021 stating or even just implying that humanity definitely or probably won't survive past the end of the year.

He has said that he can't entirely rule out the possibility that the end will come today or tomorrow, but the context suggests that he thought the probability was very small, and even if we ignore the context, a reasonable person will surely concede that that is a much different level of probability.