Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by giardini 223 days ago
ZeroGravitas says>" it's been trending down most places for decades."<

The problem is that reported crime is a political number: those in power want the number to go down on their watch and they have control of the reporting mechanism. Pressure exists at every level, from patrolmen filling out incident reports to statisticians collating the numbers for the mayor, to move the numbers downward.

There is every reason to be skeptical of reported criminal statistical trends in USA cities today.
1 comments
jonway 223 days ago
Where is the alternative "true" numbers?

Police have every incentive to do the opposite of what you say. Why else fund them?

link
LexiMax 223 days ago
The police have bosses, and the bosses want to have careers. From The Wire: S04E09.

    Pryzbylewski: I don't get it. All this so we score higher on the state tests? If we're teaching the kids the test questions, what is it assessing in them?
    Sampson: Nothing. It assesses us. The test scores go up, they can say the schools are improving. The scores stay down, they can't.
    Pryzbylewski: Juking the stats.
    Sampson: Excuse me?
    Pryzbylewski: Making robberies into larcenies. Making rapes disappear. You juke the stats, and majors become colonels. I've been here before.
    Sampson: Wherever you go, there you are.
It's unfortunate that the "crime is higher than reported" narrative has been hijacked by bootlickers who are chomping at the bit for a pretext to sic the military on large cities, but the underlying idea that crime statistics can be gamed for the sake of self-interest isn't wrong.
link
jonway 223 days ago
How is a patrolman lying about a helping himself?

It seems nuts to claim the year over year national drops in crime are all gaming stats comp. I’m positive there is some of this going on, but an effort like that to suppress crime statistics on a national level doesn’t pass the sniff test, you’re saying no cops retired and then blow the whistle? That everywhere in America is doing this and nobody notices(enough)?

Similarly some cops are actual criminals and totally corrupt. Like Taglione, or the Baltimore gun trace task force, but that sure as hell doesn’t mean everyone is.

Do you think police are systematically underreporting crime to the tune of like multiple decades lows?

link