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by labrador 222 days ago
Ray Kurzweil and his "Age of Spiritual Machines", which I read in 1999, is much more to blame than the others like Goertzel that came after him but Kurzweil doesn't get a mention. Kurzweil is also a MIT grad closely associated with MIT and possibly the MIT Technology Review.
2 comments
chubot 222 days ago
Yeah totally, not a single mention of Kurzweil in this article. I also read “Age of spiritual machines” in 1999 (in college), and skimmed most of his subsequent books

Then Kurzweil became my manager’s peer at Google in 2014 or so (actually 2 managers). I remember he was mocked by a few coworkers (and maybe deservedly so, because they had some mildly funny stories)

So I have been wondering with all the AGI talk why Kurzweil isn’t talked about more. Was he vindicated in some sense?

I did get a partial answer - one reason is that doomer AGI prophecies are better marketing than Kurzweil’s brand of AGI, which is about merging with machines

And of course both kinds of AGI prophecies are good distractions from AI ethics, which is more likely to slow investment than to grow it

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labrador 222 days ago
> Was he vindicated in some sense?

No. He's still saying AGI will demand political rights in 2029. Like Geoffrey Hinton, Kurzweil gets a pass because he's brilliant and acomplished. But also like Hinton, he's wrong about this one issue. With Hinton it appears to be fear driving his fantasies. With Kurzwel it's probably over-confidence.

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Terr_ 222 days ago
> > Kurzweil’s brand of AGI, which is about merging with machines

> With Kurzwel it's probably over-confidence.

It's his fear of mortality, which also helps explain the "merging" emphasis.

Every new Kurzweil "prediction" involves technologies that are just amazing-enough and the timeline just aggressive-enough that they converge into a future where a guy of Ray Kurzweil's age just manages to hop onto the first departure of the train to immortality.

If y'all have seen any exception to that pattern, please let me know, I'm genuinely curious.

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labrador 222 days ago
Yes, I think you're right. I forgot he was a leading transhumanist.
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mateo411 222 days ago
Yes, the Singularity came from Kurzweil.
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tim333 222 days ago
Well, it predated Kurzweil. The term first came up with John von Neumann in the 50s. But Kurzweil has promoted it.
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mateo411 222 days ago
Interesting. Thanks for telling me that.
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