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by jmyeet 227 days ago
You know who is going to develop cutting edge EUV+ lithography to rival ASML? It's not this startup (most likely). It's China.

Chipmaking is in a very weird geopolitical state and it has national security interests for most of the world. A Dutch company produces the machines to make chips and sells them to Taiwanese companies. The US still has the power to dictate who ASML can sell to and China is restricted.

This system has a number of flaws:

1. With this administration torching US influence at a never-seen-before rate, the US may no longer be able to dictate terms to ASML. At some point, it's all going to be too much for the EU;

2. Taiwan is disputed territory. This statement tends to make people mad but it's true. China claims it as China but, more importantly, the One China policy is official policy of the US [1] and the EU. Yet the US also has a defence pact with Taiwan. Not that it matters because China simply doesn't have the military capability to invade Taiwan and I honestly don't think they would anyway; and

3. The US has basically lost the ability to fab chips. Yes, Intel exists but they are a shadow of their former selves. The CHIPS Act tried to rectify this but even if this administration hadn't basically abandoned it, I don't think the US can see this one through regardless of administration. It's too long term. Any US company now that gets government aid just uses it on more executive compensation and share buybacks. Everything is now so financialized that any ability to produce anything is really just inertia from a bygone era.

China has the exact same national security concerns except it has a proven track record of investing in and delivering long-term projects.

[1]: https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-w...

1 comments

Chip making is one of the unique tech which is at the farthest end of humanity's engineering capabilities. Not just ASML, its entire supply chain is full of extremely precise components which 1 or 2 companies have mastered. e.g. the mirrors used are so precise that if scaled to size of earth tallest mountain will be 1cm high. Sure China will make it one day and maybe will beat rest of the world, it is not given to be in near future.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190709009300320

"Samsung is a major buyer of Japanese chemical companies producing fluorine polyimide used to make flexible OLED displays, as well as resist and etching gas needed in the semiconductor fabrication process."

Samsung's CEO went to Japan to try and secure Japan's chemicals back in 2019 during the bad blood between South Korea and Japan.

China will have to take on the entire supply chain from chemicals, machines and talents if they want to avoid a chokehold. That's a very tall order.