[drewbug01]

> The chances of a citizen being targeted by ICE is low.

You can’t start with this premise, though. Recent rulings allow stops based on “probable cause” such as a combination of “speaks Spanish”, “is brown”, and “is in a place where we think illegal immigrants might be”.

So like: any Latino US citizen, who happens to be working someplace like a landscaping company. Or a kitchen.

The idea that citizens aren’t likely to be targets is now laughable. And we have ample reporting indicating that in fact, citizens are being detained, for hours and hours (if not longer).

[somenameforme]

Low doesn't mean zero, it means low. You might notice I used different terms for the different groupings, with the chance of a citizen being targeted by ICE as the highest overall at "low". ICE has so far deported more than 400,000 illegal aliens. [1] If they were "only" 99% accurate, you'd be able to find thousands of instances where things went wrong. Instead, you're looking more at tens to low hundreds of instances, so it's likely that their overall accuracy is somewhere in the 99.9% to 99.99% range.

And as I was demonstrating above, the conditional probabilities required for a false positive from this app mean that it's practical effective accuracy rate will likely be 100%.

[1] - https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/09/23/new-milestone-over-2-mil...

[drewbug01]

> Instead, you're looking more at tens to low hundreds of instances

…based on what, the independent research ProPublica did? DHS doesn’t even keep statistics on how many citizens they detain so I’m not sure we should be assuming the numbers here are that low.

[somenameforme]

What I mentioned already. Being incorrectly detained isn't consequence free. People can and have successfully sued, winning substantial sums of money in the process. And we also live in the social media age where nothing gets more of those sacred likes and other such things (including that sweet sweet GoFundMe money) than framing oneself as a victim. And on top of this all immigration enforcement runs contrary to the corporate media's biases. They are actively trying to make a mountain out of every single molehill, yet they are clearly finding themselves annoyingly short of molehills.

In other words, ICE's errors are highly visible. That my approximation aligns with ProPublica's (which is probably a higher end ballpark since I doubt they were especially critical of any claims they discovered) is unsurprising.

[drewbug01]

> People can and have successfully sued, winning substantial sums of money in the process.

I would be quite interested to know if you can cite sources on that.

> And we also live in the social media age where nothing gets more of those sacred likes and other such things (including that sweet sweet GoFundMe money) than framing oneself as a victim.

What, exactly, is your argument here? That it’s all fine because you think people will play victim and strike it rich on GoFundMe? I’m struggling to see what point you’re actually trying to make.

> They are actively trying to make a mountain out of every single molehill, yet they are clearly finding themselves annoyingly short of molehills.

Sources? Please list out what molehills were made into mountains. What evidence do you have that they are actively trying to do it because of their “bias”? You’re regurgitating tired, right-wing talking points. Back it up with evidence if you’re so sure about it.

> which is probably a higher end ballpark since I doubt they were especially critical of any claims they discovered

Well, sure. Let’s see some evidence that they weren’t critical enough with their reporting. My understanding is that they are a highly respected journalistic outfit. What makes you so sure they were playing fast and loose with the facts?

[somenameforme]

Here [1] is a case where somebody won $150,000 for being detained for 12 hours. The cases aren't especially difficult to search for yourself, so I'm not sure why you're asking me. I can actually respond to everything else you said with an example from ProPublica's story you cited [2], to emphasize that I'm not cherry picking cases to make my point! Scroll down about 25% of the way and you'll get their first inline video example of "Rafie Ollah Shouhed".

Now go frame by frame at about the 5.5s mark. You can see the individual in question charge and then thrust his body in front of the responding ICE officer (watch how he leans left into the officer before they are in physical contact) to create a physical altercation. He then attempts to grab the legs of the officer as he jogs away. The same guy then comes out for more, and pushes one ICE officer dealing with somebody else, and then starts grappling with another ICE officer before he's finally tackled and arrested.

Media Framing:

- Surveillance footage shows Ice agents pushing 79-year-old man to the ground (Guardian)

- Car wash owner files $50M claim over injuries sustained during immigration raid (ABC)

- 79-year-old US citizen pinned by ICE agents (Fox)

- California wash owner tackled, arrested 'impeding' ICE arrest (USA Today)

- U.S. citizen files civil rights claim after ICE raid at his car wash (NBC)

As this is the first video ProPublica featured, presumably they think that's the most compelling case. In any case it's certainly one of their cases which are supposed to be injust, yet there wasn't even the slightest injustice there whatsoever. And now he wants $50 million lol. I'd also add that ProPublica implies that the government dropping charges in cases is because of lack of merit. In reality it's going to be a balance of gain:loss from such. This is one of those cases where the charges were dropped, but obviously that was not done for lack of merit.

[1] - https://www.splcenter.org/resources/stories/florida-sheriffs...

[2] - https://www.propublica.org/article/immigration-dhs-american-...

[drewbug01]

We clearly aren’t watching the same video.

What you see as “thrusting” sure looks to me like he was trying to stop himself from a full-on run - why did he grab a door handle on the wall? Why would you grab and pull like that if you were trying to tackle?

And “grabbing his legs”… come on man. That looks a hell of a lot like an old man flailing after getting tackled.

And you think he grappled with the officer before getting arrested outside? It looks like precisely the opposite.

I’m sorry, I just can’t buy what you’re selling.