[0xrelogic]

Last week I wrote about Meta's $75B AI infrastructure spending. Seven days later: $30B bond offering (largest since 2023), stock dropped 11% (worst day in 3 years), and Wall Street analysts who were bullish 48 hours earlier all downgraded.

What changed? Nothing fundamental. Meta beat earnings on every metric. The only new info: 2026 capex will be "significantly larger" than 2025's $70-72B.

Key findings: - Oppenheimer downgraded from $696 target to no target, citing "Metaverse spending" concerns (the exact bear case they'd been dismissing) - 5 major firms cut price targets 3.6-10% within 24 hours - Fed Chair Powell had to address "circular financing" concerns - CoreWeave's $9B acquisition of Core Scientific collapsed same day

The irony: My Oct 28 article predicted bubble concerns, off-balance-sheet debt becoming a theme, and ROI timeline issues. Bloomberg published "Meta Starting Trend for Off-Balance Sheet Debt" on Oct 31.

Wall Street doesn't predict the future. It narrates the present.

Happy to discuss the analyst flip-flops, the $21.6B in hidden debt (Blue Owl SPV), or whether Zuckerberg's "better to overbuild" strategy is genius or gambling.