Yeah, I was thinking of the same study. Looking at just the conversation on HN, lots of people are installing solar. Solar reduces the amount of energy used by that customer, but does not lower the cost of infrastructure to distribute power to that customer at all. And the cost of electricity is dominated by distribution and transmission, not generation. With an increased share of costs going to overhead infrastructure, the cost per watt goes up. Higher consumption increases the share of costs due to generation, and cost per watt goes down.
"Contrary to these concerns, our analysis finds that state-level load growth in recent years (through 2024) has tended to reduce average retail electricity prices. Fig. 5 depicts this relationship for 2019–2024: states with the highest load growth experienced reductions in real prices, whereas states with contracting loads generally saw prices rise."
Which is why cheap batteries will be the camel that broke the straw's back. It's really hard to find numbers, but I like 20–30$/kwh by 2030. At those prices I can get a 4 day backup for an oversized (50kw) solar panel install for my house for 20k$. Why even hook up to the grid, at all?
"Contrary to these concerns, our analysis finds that state-level load growth in recent years (through 2024) has tended to reduce average retail electricity prices. Fig. 5 depicts this relationship for 2019–2024: states with the highest load growth experienced reductions in real prices, whereas states with contracting loads generally saw prices rise."