|
I recently downloaded about 10 years of monthly price returns for QQQ, TQQQ, NVDA, GBTC, and a few others. Then I asked ChatGPT and Gemini (separately) to find the portfolio that maximizes an adjusted CAGR — roughly, mean return minus ½ × standard deviation². Result: 70% NVDA, 30% GBTC (Bitcoin), and 0% QQQ or TQQQ.
Honestly, not a bad mix — especially for a small, high-risk slice of your portfolio. Next, I compared TQQQ (Triple Qs) vs. QQQ using the same 10-year monthly data. The optimizer picked 100% TQQQ, which again makes sense if you’re doing this in a tax-advantaged account like a 401(k) or IRA and only with money you’re willing to take some risk on. Then I expanded the dataset — 55 years of returns across major asset classes (S&P 500, gold, short- and long-term Treasuries, corporate bonds, real estate, etc.) — and asked for the optimal portfolio.
The winner: ~85% S&P 500, 15% gold, though 75/25 gives nearly the same return with a better Sharpe ratio. A few quick takeaways: Gold → GLDM ETF is the best vehicle. QQQ → QQQM or TQQQ are the best versions. And if you’re feeling adventurous: 70% NVDA, 30% IBIT (Bitcoin) isn’t crazy. For what it’s worth, I’ve been running 75% stocks / 25% gold for a while now, but I’m thinking of carving out ~10% of the stock portion for a more aggressive tilt: TQQQ (6%), NVDA (2%), IBIT (1%) — because why not? |
Thinking about it, my recommendation is read:
https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/index/
and then after maxing your 401k, open a Betterment account, and then max your HSA if applicable. The tax savings easily best custom portfolio picking.