[saraid216]

To make moystard's point more clearly–and with a chart!–, http://xkcd.com/605/

[elimisteve]

Tent's success is far from certain, of course. Sounds like you're convinced that just because something might not happen, it almost certainly will not. Also a fallacy.

[saraid216]

That is some pretty amazing putting-words-in-my-mouth. I mean, if we're going to call out fallacies.