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by ThrowawayR2 234 days ago
From Democratic analyst David Shor back in March ( https://archive.is/kbwom ) : "The reality is if all registered voters had turned out, then Donald Trump would’ve won the popular vote by 5 points [instead of 1.7 points]." So, not that it brings me any joy to say it but it would seem more like 55%?

If anyone has any polling data to the contrary, I'd love to see it.
1 comments
dragonwriter 233 days ago
“Registered voters” is not the same group as “people”.

Winning by 5% (even assuming no third party votes) is 52.5% (with 47.5% for the opponent) not 55%, if there are any third-party votes, that gets even lower.

A piece written in March 2025 discussing a hypothetical for the November 2024 election is not describing the state of the world in October 2025.

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ThrowawayR2 233 days ago
Unless the 40% number in your previous post was from October 2025, that's plainly moving the goalposts. And registered voters are the only people who matter since anyone else can't cast a ballot.

Beyond that, the August 2025 (since October's aren't available yet) poll numbers don't seem that much better. That the Democratic Party approval is neck and neck with the Republicans despite the Republicans' blatant corruption and incompetence speaks volumes about how unpopular the Democratic Party is. They need to reform drastically before the midterms next year.

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Dylan16807 233 days ago
> registered voters are the only people who matter

This right here is moving the goalposts.

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