[otherme123]

> Your child gets measles, is probably OK, but if not, goes to an expensive hospital and will probably be fine. Even without vaccinations, it's probably not a life or death scenario. I'm not saying it's good, only that the price tag is likely low.

I don't understand this take, if you are a parent. For example, RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), rarely causes death in developed countries. But 1) like SARS-CoV-2, almost every children will get infected at least once in their first two years of age and 2) a respectable number of non-deadly consequences come from this virus, some of them long term.

My point is death is not the only consequence you should weight. Just having your baby a couple of weeks in "expensive hospital" (i.e. ICU), with a chance short term consequences like respiratory problems and secondary infections, or long term non-deathly consequences like asthma and alergies, sounds like a danger serious enough to me. It seems like a very poor parent decision to not vaccinate your children against RSV, even if it's almost impossible for RSV to kill your baby.

[rich_sasha]

That's really not my point. My point is, for the statistical parent in the West who doesn't vaccinate their children, the outcome is pretty benign (for the child, really). Median child doesn't even get sick. You'd have to go to the 99th+ percentile to get to a really nasty outcome. Most unvaccinated kids will be fine, because they're in a rich country. Not because it's a good idea, but because there's a secondary safety net that will still catch them.

But not so in poor countries.

[otherme123]

I think I get your point. My point is that I work in health sector, and people usually get very surprised when you tell them you have 5 babies in ICU caused by preventable / vaccinable diseases. For us is another monday, for their parents is a terrible experience.

The babies usually don't die, and usually get a full recovery. So it doesn't come up in the news. But you, as a parent, don't want to have your baby hospitalized or in ICU: it's very stressful, it has health consequences short and long term. My point is "don't reduce consequences to life-death", because there are a lot of in between consequences you don't want for your kid.

I like your "secondary safety net" image. It's secondary because you vaccine (the first safety net), but when people trust blindly the secondary safety net so they get rid of the first safety net, you only have one primary safety net. It's like getting rid of the safety belt now the cars have airbags.

This is a dilemma of the prisoner: you can "bet" your children won't get infected even without vaccine and even if he catches the infection he would get through it easily, so you don't have any risks from the vaccine. That works if non-vaccinated are only a few, but above some point the herd immunity is lost and the most vulnerable kids will have to suffer serious consequences.

If I didn't want to vaccinate my kids, I would fight tooth and nail as a pro-vaccines, so the herd immunity covers them.

[rich_sasha]

Well, again, me as a parent vaccinates his kids, and myself too for that matter. It's the only sane thing to do.

People who don't but live in "the West" are worse off in expectation but for most, not by much. They can mostly afford anti-vax BS because some good soul in a well equipped ICU looks after the kiddos.

But if this nonsense rubs off on people in poor places, if they start doubting the safety of vaccines because some influencer on Twitter says so, then that's a huge tragedy. To me at least.

I'm not in any way saying not vaccinating your children for no reason is ever a good idea.

[soco]

I'm not sure why you say "price tag is low". It's not low at all, and it's totally avoidable at the cost of a few thousands shots. In the age of medical system underfunding (or in any case, affected by cuts) the health management must look at every avoidable expense, and IC beds are quite some expense. Add to that the increased predictability of a vaccinated population and you have the winner option. I'm only talking money here, and I'll leave the societal and personal implications for others to look at.