[kragen]

There's no contradiction between year-over-year growth and nine months of economic decline; year-over-year figures also average in the three months before those nine. Six months, if you are looking at YoY figures for June.

However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis.

I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data.

0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over.

Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.

[kragen]

Just to clarify, that's an increase of 0.8%, not annualized 0.8% growth. Annualized it would be 1.6%, which is below the long-run post-Industrial-Revolution average of around 3%, but far from the immediate catastrophe Fernandez and his economy minister Massa had perpetrated before Milei came to power.

For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.