[neltnerb]

I've got to throw out an obvious explanation.

A third of the country rents. Renters pay the utility bills. Landlords pay for appliance upgrades.

Why would the landlord put any effort into upgrading appliances when the cost of not upgrading them is borne by the renters?

I've never rented at a place where they didn't want to fix broken equipment with the cheapest possible replacement. And no renter would ever consider purchasing a major appliance like this since they'll end up priced out before they recover the cost in utility bills.

They're a nice technology, but our incentives are all wrong for a lot of housing stock.

[ZeroGravitas]

In some locations you can't rent out places without minimum energy efficiency ratings, which then leads to insulation and heat pumps getting installed.

[adrianN]

Where is that?

[ZeroGravitas]

This is referred to as "Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES)" and seems to have been pioneered in the UK and adopted by Netherlands and France and then the EU generally.

[dan-robertson]

IME the people estimating energy efficiency in the UK do not recognise heat pumps and often misclassify them as less efficient systems.

[ZeroGravitas]

I believe the EPC is being updated to fix that and googling suggests it has gone into effect a few months ago.

[kortilla]

Then why aren’t they in 2/3 of houses

[edg5000]

They are efficient but do not have as high of an energy output as a smaller and cheaper gas furnaice. Apart from that, the water temperature is lower, so you need much larger radiators. Due to the lower energy output, you also need better insulation or a relatively massive heat pump. And the tech was not around 20 years ago (for reasons unknown to me).

[flakeoil]

The water temperature which you deliver to radiators are not defined by capacity of the heatpump, but how hot the radiators can be for safety/comfort reasons. If the radiators are too hot people could burn by touching them or stuff like platsic chairs would melt. Also the piping in the walls and floors cannot support too hot temperatures.

The temp for water used in radiators 60-70C is easily achievable by an air-top-water heat pump. It does not depend on the energy source, gas/oil/electricity.

[adrianN]

The heat pump runs with much better efficiency at <50 degrees.

[ZeroGravitas]

Condensing gas boilers similarly run more efficiently at lower temps.

If the water returning to the boiler isn't below 54C then there will be no condensing at all, and the advertised 90%+ efficiency won't happen till the return value is more like 46C.

That translates roughly to max winter temp of 65C leaving the boiler and lower when lesss heating is required.

This can be tweaked by the end user and save 10-20% on heating bills.

[CalRobert]

Is there a reason to use radiators and not just go straight to air to air pumps, which also have aircon?

[neltnerb]

From context I can't tell if they mean the heated coils in a heat pump head, or somehow connecting to a traditional radiator.

In older homes there isn't necessarily HVAC at all and instead there are actual radiators. I've lived in two like that, there is just no forced air to rooms.

[CalRobert]

Yeah, European homes seem to have a love of radiators that I don't really understand; I hate mine. Ugly and huge.

[neltnerb]

I listed a reason that impacts a third of houses. I didn't write an essay because the article lists plenty of others. It was just weird that they never mentioned the misaligned incentives.

[kortilla]

They didn’t mention them because they clearly aren’t a dominating factor.

[tgma]

Electricity is much more expensive than gas per J. You have to be ~3x more efficient to just break even.

[occz]

As it turns out, you regularly get a COP of >3 from heat pumps, as they don't need to generate the heat, they steal it from somewhere else (outside)

[tgma]

Right and you simply break even there so there's not much upside in terms of variable costs unless your electricity is somehow cheaper and not mainstream California prices.

[SoftTalker]

That doesn't square with the fact that new rentals are built with granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Tenants do shop around on the basis of amenities.

[ericpauley]

Sure, but those amenities are highly visible. Lots of units have a stainless dishwasher exterior, but most will still be the landlord-special plastic tub inside. Who is shopping around based on whether or not there’s a heat pump? I would consider myself relatively well-educated on this and still the heat/cooling source is an afterthought.

[deinonychus]

Honestly the ductless mini split system in my new apartment was a big factor for me. But it was the first time I'd seen one over here in the mid-atlantic.

[neltnerb]

The combination with air conditioning and dehumidifying is genuinely compelling for the simplicity. Especially in new construction.

But these things trickle down to renters last. And if the landlord installs it, you bet your ass the rent is going up more than your savings on electricity.

Lose lose lose, if it gets installed then the current residents probably get priced out anyway. It eventually trickles down but we could do so much better.