[phil21]

It’s strange that even on HN with above average financial literacy people still have this completely wrong mental model of social security.

It’s simply a general tax dressed up in marketing fluff. It’s a pay as you go defined benefits program. Current workers are paying for current retirees.

There is very little difference between it and any other means tested welfare program - it’s just the means testing works in a different manner but can be changed at any time.

It’s no more “your money” than any federal income tax you’ve paid in over the years.

[Fade_Dance]

Additionally, even if the "self-funded" aspect was enshrined into the process on all levels, you're looking at a program that dwarfs any other program of this type, worldwide. It would necessarily be in US government bonds, and the real yields of bonds are very much a function of the overall deficit and wider tax current situation and outlook. The treasury actively twists issuance and effectively has yield curve targets. The Federal Reserve does active balance sheet management as well, and monetary and fiscal are increasingly working in sync with one another. A program of the size of social security with inflation adjusted US dollar denominated obligations in trillions can never be and will never be truly separate.

Even if they wanted to do something extremely simple like hold TIPS (inflation linked bonds) and hedge some of the inflation risk internally, buying TIPS from the US government would simply be a circular transaction that would be canceled out by the bond component of the TIPS. Pointless. If SS went out into the global financial market, they would quite literally absorb a big chunk of the global capacity for that risk, and more importantly, on a global level it all feeds back to the US/dollar, especially in times of stress (which having a Gorilla sucking up endless amounts of inflation risk would actually amplify). Again - it would cancel out on net. A program that big is almost too large for traditional financialization. It would need to be buying networks of ports and such like China does with their surpluses, but even here, the US already carries a large amount of geopolitical risk in their financial system (look at the Tariff scare where the bond market almost blew up because the large amount of financial assets held by foreigners were pulled from the country). It's actually fairly interesting to follow these lines and feedback loops and see how everything is connected.