[ChuckMcM]

My parents used to joke that it took three owners to create a new ski resort, the first to do all the permitting paperwork and go bankrupt, the second to acquire that completed paperwork for free and then to go bankrupt removing trees and rocks and installing lifts, then the third to get the paperwork and the equipment for free and to start marketing it.

I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself to buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad.

[daeken]

> I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself to buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad.

I'm largely in the same boat. I'm planning on buying a car in the next year and while I think the Model S is downright beautiful, I can't do it. The base model is right in the price range I'd be willing to pay, but the problem is the range; even under optimal driving circumstances, it's quite a bit short of what I'd need to make the trips I'd like to make. One of the higher end models has the range I'd need, but I can't justify the extra $20k or whatever it is.

Hopefully in a couple years there'll be a car from them priced at the perfect level with the things I need, but it's just not there yet.

[sliverstorm]

Depending on how compelled you are and how often you make those trips you'd like to make, you could potentially shore up your garage with a cheap beater from the 90's.

[maguay]

I just purchased a new ~$20k Toyota in Thailand, and its my first vehicle purchase. I'm seriously hoping electric is in my price range here in, say, a decade when I plan to want a new car...

[vm]

Excellent analogy. Tesla has major challenges to lasting as a company.

It spends about $100M per quarter and it has $200M of cash [1]. So in the next 6 months, Tesla will need to bring margins way up (unlikely), dramatically cut expenses (opposite of the current plan), or raise lots more money.

The company already has $400M in debt. I hope it can raise more. Or that the public will pony up more investment. I also really really want Tesla to succeed.

[1] See "Cash Flows" tab: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii&...

[timdorr]

If they can build the 5000 cars they claimed for this year (honestly, its doubtful) then they have ~$75k (rough guess on avg car price) * 5000 = ~$375m coming their way this year. And they have a huge backlog of orders (~13.8k), so it's really just a question of if they can scale up their production fast enough to close the gap. It'll happen, possibly without any bridge financing.

[vm]

Revenues are not cash flows. That $375M of revenues from car orders has real costs associated (i.e. materials, labor).

Ford and GM, established car makers, have gross margins of about 12-15%. Tesla's margins are much lower, at least today. But let's ignore working capital needs and pretend Tesla had the "great" margins of its competitors, then that's still only $50M of cash contribution. Tesla will need lots of cash this year.

[niccl]

Is there another way of looking at this? Do you need to own the car? I hire a car when I need one, and use feet, push-bike and public transport the rest of the time. I _know_ I save money this way, compared with owning: I used to own a car, kept all the paper work and did the arithmetic.

If you didn't need to own the car, then things like a vehicular equivalent of the old livery stables and post horses might be viable.