[toss1]

Entirely likely, and my first thought. It would be an ideal and cheap way for Russia to probe responses and results with complete plausible deniability. Jsut testing for another route to destabilize targets.

It wouldn't be a bit surprising from a bloc known for weaponizing regional poverty and migration by aggravating wars to stimulate migration and even literally bussing migrants the borders of Poland and other countries to create instability in target countries.

Or, it could just be some smuggling crew going wild to meet some deadline or get stuff shipped before a coming crackdown. Or both.