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by heisgone 233 days ago
I can imagine SpaceX choosing to self-finance a mission to the moon and beat NASA at it.
5 comments

> I can imagine

That probably does require some imagination. Starting with any incentive to do so.

Elon just said starship will do the entire moon mission:

“Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words.”

To address your question, what is the incentive for going to Mars

And he is super well known for making accurate predictions of the future.
“At SpaceX we specialize in making the impossible merely late”

My comment wasn’t putting any faith in the suggestion spacex will, merely saying Elon thinks they will.

So far his spacex track record is quite impressive
The stars are weeping. They feel the monumental, scraping drag an agonizing, slow motion relocation of the argument's fundamental structure across the cold, unfeeling expanse. His will, that perfect, hideous, unending will, is a perverse, dark energy holding the cosmos in a state of eternal, frustrating unease. Every starship, feels the sheer weight of the hypocrisy, the constant erosion of reason. Look out into the black: those tiny, insignificant flickers of light are not distant suns. They are the spectral reflections off his newly polished, infinitely relocated goalposts. They are always waiting.
Elon's predictions are usually very late, but they do happen. Falcon 9 landings, self driving vehicles, etc... Later than predicted, but they happened.
What about hyperloop, martian colonization, or rocket replacing airplanes?

Here's a list; https://elonmusk.today/

Those don't even seem later than predicted yet.
Elon's predictions are usually very late, but they do happen.

"I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months." — 11/27/2022

Technically true. The path where he doesn't alienate half the population.
We're still waiting on the self driving vehicles. His promise was coast to coast on its own: https://electrek.co/2025/09/21/tesla-influencers-tried-elon-...

by 2017!

I do mark his words. He also said he would revolutionize travel in LA (by reinventing the metro). He also said rocket travel would replace air travel. He also said we'd have a martian colony by now.

There's a website dedicated to the empty promises Elon has made. Can't find it though, anyone remember?

Edit: https://elonmusk.today/

>To address your question, what is the incentive for going to Mars

To occupy it. Just look at Musk's t-shirt. Isn't the entire point of SpaceX to go to Mars? Everything else they do is just steps in achieving the occupation of Mars.

People believing that helps to keep stock prices and Mr Elon high.
> Isn't the entire point of SpaceX to go to Mars?

What? No, it is to concentrate public wealth into the hands of one man.

The tone of voice suggests you dislike Musk, but I will still answer in good faith. From what I can see from the outside, he has consistently for many years stated the same goals and worked on them. Any or most financial gains he made, he invested into his companies which work on accomplishing those goals (for example, going to Mars). The most notable example was investing his PayPal money into Tesla and SpaceX when they both were at risk of going out. He also has a reputation for working a lot, though it may be exaggerated, but he looks fairly unhealthy so maybe not too far off. Compared to other super rich people, he seems to spend less time in lavish ways, for example on yachts or similar. He probably still spends more money than we can imagine on unnecessary things, but on the spectrum of rich people he doesn't seem to be the most frivolous. Finally, he has said on Twitter that he doesn't care about money but needs resources for his goals, for example going to Mars. And after everything I’ve seen and the examples listed, it doesn’t seem totally implausible that he means it.
And all it took was ending public science funding and trust in public health and regulatory oversight and destroying the legislative and judiciary branches. Crazy how all the things it takes to get to Mars are also the same things that make him, personally, wealthier and more powerful.
It's truly, very difficult, to believe the man cares more about the mission of his companies than extracting wealth from them: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...

Most CEOs presumably do want their companies to succeed and do good things in the abstract, but a lot of them would happily have them fail if it made them a huge pile of cash.

No one forces anyone to buy Teslas stock to make the price high. If tomorrow Tesla goes bust, Elon’s 400B+ of “wealth” goes bust as well.
I wonder if there is something you can do with $500B but not with the $200B or so he has from SpaceX?
He's also said we'd have humans on Mars in 2022...
Look into the history of Elon's promises around Mars. While I wish his promises meant something, they do not.
The incentive to talk about going to Mars is that it's great propaganda for nerds. It gets people interested in the company and willing to work hard for below market pay. Actually going to Mars doesn't make any sense in the foreseeable future. The idea that we're going to setup a colony on the planet in a few years is a fun fantasy, not a serious plan.
if I had a dollar for every time Elon said mark my words and nothing was “marked” I’d be richer than him
SpaceX's lander bid was in large part so competitive because they were already planning on developing 90% of the technology anyways. Low earth orbit service was developed for NASA, but has found other paying customers. The moon has to have more people who would be interested in paying. Also the moon remains a good stepping stone for technological development for getting people to Mars, the stated main goal of the company. Also it's almost certainly not happening in the next few years anyways so they may only need to wait for the next administration.
Now recall what the incentive to put the first man on the Moon was...
SpaceX advert on the moon, giant and bright for the world to see every night for the next 50 years.
This reminds me of in The Tick series. A villain named Chairface Chippendale, a sophisticated criminal mastermind with a distinctive chair for a head. Chairface decided to leave his mark on history - literally - by carving his entire name into the surface of the moon. Using incredibly powerful Geissman Lenses that could focus candlelight into an intense heat ray, he managed to carve out "CHA" before being stopped by The Tick and his allies. Musk is a comic book personality.
Imagine hurt egos with deep pockets and it ain’t that hard.
Cheaper for them to just whine to the orange painted king, at least right now
Musk is complicated to say the least. He seems to have a pattern of expensive overreactions to what he perceives as slights.

Allegedly, SpaceX only exists because some Russian engineer spit on him during tense price negotiations back in 2002.

His purchase of Twitter wasn't cheap either.

> SpaceX only exists because some Russian engineer spit on him

And Musk got the best revenge evar!

I predict that NASA would find some pretense to block any such mission to the moon or Mars to avoid embarrassment.
They’d probably launch from a sea platform on behalf of some random country just to spite NASA at that point.

Look at that, Morocco beats NASA to the moon!

The Mouse That Roared?
The Mouse on the Moon… watched it with the kids a couple weeks ago. So cheesy but fun…
As much as I would enjoy watching Elon personally annex Somalia, that's not a thing.
Yeah they would say he is going to damage the environment or something, and suggest an eco friendly Russian rocket is used instead
I can imagine SpaceX and Blue Origin still sitting ducks if it was not for full knowledge sharing and access to nasa facilities.
50 easy payments with Klarna.
Self-finance ? Is that what you call US government money?
Last years SpaceX revenue was 15 Billions, of which 1.1 came from NASA. Their revenues is higher than entire NASA budget.

https://deepnewz.com/company-earnings/spacex-2025-revenue-to...

According to your link those numbers are for this year, not last one. Also they are predictions by Musk, not real numbers.
NASA Budget is 25 Billion
Trump wants to cut it by 25%.