[mad_tortoise]

Fascinating you say "a country that is in steady decline" when all the data of the past 29 years since the start of democracy seems to go against that statement. I hate the ANC for their corruption and other stances, but I don't let party political hate get in the way of the real basis of what is going on in the country. I'm guessing you haven't spent much time there? Whereas I have spent the past 25 years and travelled and lived extensively in South Africa.

What is your indication of decline? Some facts and figures:

- Less than 30% of the population having access to water has increased to near 100%.

- Electricity had less than 30% access and now sits around 90%

- Access to education (The matric pass rate more than doubled from 53.4 in 1995 to 82.9 in 2023) to taking that to near 100% in 29 years is pretty incredible.

- Taking 8 million people out of poverty and lower class into the middle class in that time is pretty great.

- Access to free healthcare for the entire country.

- The freedom of not being discriminated towards due to skin colour.

Yes the ANC has had an opportunity to do much greater good, but if you take in the bigger picture and understand that the white population still holds over 70% of the wealth while being 10% of the population - this is an enforced inequality that needs to be righted.

If you look at the freedoms of South Africa, it has possibly the best constitution in the world. Sure, the enforcement of the laws are not as good as the laws themselves - but the rate of improvement in my lifetime has been staggering. Even despite the setback of the Zuma years.

Even now, we have gone from an ANC dominated political landscape to a Government of National Unity, which forces different political factions to work together. Another huge milestone in the burgeoning democracy of a young country.

It is so far from perfect but if you really have spent any significant time in SA and still think it is a country in decline, then I am more inclined to think you're one of the types of expats who love to shit on something that you have no bond to, and not because your arguments are bound by facts. We must interrogate the long standing consequences of white monopoly capitals violent subjugation of South Africans in both the past and the present to paint a fair picture of the country.

Your quote " a country that is in steady decline." certainly does not paint a fair picture.

[lgleason]

The country is in decline. I have spent a lot of time there, have family who live there and can easily counter this:

- Many communities still rely on water trucks instead of water pipe infrastructure. The government loots the funds for it, meanwhile the entire system is on the verge of collapse and there are regular water shortages.

- With the electric grid, the amount of load shedding in the past few years where people are regularly without electric to 6-8 hours a day is absolutely crazy. The country didn't used to experience that. Also, cable theft is common, which wasn't an issue 30 years ago.

- 1.6 million people out of 66 million pay 76% of all taxes.

- Public healthcare in ZA is bad and not recommended by anybody who values their life.

- South Africa has more race laws today than it did during apartheid.

- It has a violent crime rate that is one of the highest in the world.

- Unemployment is high.

- It has suffered from massive underinvestment in infrastructure over the past 30 years.

- Extremely high levels of government corruption.

One thing that really brought home how the situation is in South Africa is was when I was talking to someone I know who works for a furniture company there. They used to make all of their furniture in the country, but recently started importing it from China because that is cheaper than producing it locally. Keep in mind that is with an average daily wage of $30 for a factory worker. If a country with South Africa's nature resources and inexpensive labor cannot compete with China for manufacturing furniture for the local market, it is deep trouble.

That is probably why the CEO of a local Tile Manufacturer recently said that South Africa is one of the worlds least manufacturing-friendly economies due to onerous regulation, infrastructure deterioration, energy uncertainty and rising costs.

[mad_tortoise]

- Please share which communities rely on water trucks?

- Loadshedding is no more.

- The tax issue is precisely the problem that needs redressing and is primarily because of past injustices. You're almost there.

- I have been treated in public hospitals and while not perfect the access to healthcare is impressive.

- I agree with the race laws. Your basis that SA has more race laws is gaslighting due to the fact of the homeland act. But let's not let facts get in the way.

- Violent crime rate is because why? Apartheid spatial planning. Read up and learn all about why this has re-enforced violent crime.

- Unemployment is high, yes. Doesn't mean the country is in decline.

- Corruption has hit its peak and on the way down post-Zuma years.

I have a close friend who owns a huge furniture company, and builds everything in house and grows year on year very well. So your anecdote is countered by mine.

[animal531]

You're not even close to the facts.

- Googling for water outages gives a lot of results in just the last few days. In the NorthWest for example there are a lot of failing municipalities which are relying on government assistance to just make it month to month. Water trucks are a common occurrence all over. The official numbers on connection to water, electricity etc. are pretty much a joke.

- Loadshedding is indeed no more: Up to about 10-15% of households are now living off-grid, while in the industrial sector I can link you any number of metal processing plants that have closed down, the same for mines, car manufacturing etc. In the last few years our electricity bills have about doubled, rates and taxes aren't far behind either. That's not a win in the least.

- Healthcare: A few of the more well funded public hospitals are ok, but just from Tembisa approximately 2 billion Rands have been siphoned as of recently. Impressive isn't the word to use. Google for images to see the conditions of the hospitals and what the people who go there are experiencing, while on the other hand you can see videos of tenderpreneurs riding their Lamborghini's with police escorts via dirt roads in the outlying areas.

- Violent crime has nothing to do with apartheid (apart from the occasional incitement by political parties etc). We have crime because somewhere between 33-43% of the population is now unemployed, along with having only a barely functional police force. The people stuck on the bottom have no hope of changing their circumstances, which in turn is fueling crime (and violence).

- What makes you think there's less corruption now? The fact that more and more of it is coming to light? As long as the governing party allows it to happen its going to cascade down into all facets of life/business etc. They've begun to realize that they are losing the vote (and with it the power), but we're still a long way off from having any change on the horizon.

- Single anecdotes are pointless, some businesses will naturally grow while other decline, a lot of it is just random luck based on the type, area, time etc. Foreign investment is down something like 29% in just the last two years while we've taken on more than R25 billion in loans just recently.

[mad_tortoise]

You say I'm not even close to the facts when I can substantiate everything I have said based off released data. Let's go through your points

- You make the claim that "official numbers on connection to water, electricity etc. are pretty much a joke" yet provide nothing to back that up? Why? I would say giving access to water and electricity to over 90% of the population in under 30 years is a win. And a case against the term "steady decline". No doubt drought ravaged regions like the North West, which if you'd been to, is understandable that consistent water cannot be provided. So does they fall into the 10% of non-connected water residents? I would assume so.

- You state that 10-15% of households are off-grid. I would make a claim that that show's progress in society and not decline. Despite the reasons, it means that there will actually end up in the long run being more electricity for the population overall. Let's also look at overall manufacturing and I will provide sources: PWC you may have heard of them forecast 5.7% growth in manufacturing over the next decade (despite short term decline of -0.4%) due to reforms in regulation and fixing of electricity supply. Here's the link: https://www.pwc.co.za/en/publications/manufacturing-analysis...

- Healthcare is impressive if you take in the fact of providing healthcare free of charge to 60 million people within less than 25 years, is not only a feat but something that is literally the definition of impressive. It's far far off where it should be, no one doubts that but you seem to have a blinkered view that everything must be of a first world standard within the shortest timeframe. We could have gotten closer if it weren't for years of corruption but the aim and the goal and ability to provide healthcare to the people is still impressive.

- If you don't think violent crime has anything to do with Apartheid's spatial planning, has nothing to do with the Apartheid government arming and supplying gangs with drugs, has nothing to do with purposefully underfunding education within townships, ensuring little public transport to working hubs, and the entire multi-faceted list of socio-economic destruction that took place. Then, my friend, you literally do not know what you are talking about, nor the socio-economic reasons for crime to occur. If you think Apartheid has nothing to do with the unemployment rate due to generational injustices, maybe you should take grade 10 history again.

- What makes me think there is less corruption now? Well yes the fact that more comes to light, the fact that we even had the Zondo commission and have the recommendations taken on board in part by parliament and the implementation of the Public Procurement Act of 2024 will have a positive long-standing affect.

- Let's talk foreign investment. I'll just paste links because foreign investment is up over 80% since 2013. "Down something like 29%" without providing any links, or facts is nebulous at best. Mostly due to the fact of the vast increase post-covid caused a huge spike in FDI which if you look at without that context you'd think it is down, which is statistically a misnomer due to the societal causes of a sudden huge increase in investment when economies opened up.

Here is Lloyds banks analysis: https://www.lloydsbanktrade.com/en/market-potential/south-af...

The IDC backs SA as Africa's top investment destination: https://www.idc.co.za/sa-is-africas-top-investment-destinati...

FDI has increased in Southern Africa over the past year: https://unctad.org/news/africa-foreign-investment-hit-record...

So yeah I fucking hate the ANC. I hate the corruption. But I can see the bigger picture of the 30 year positive change, you can take a microscopic view as you have done - but this conversation is around "steady decline" and you have proven nothing to indicate that it is.

[lgleason]

Most places went off grid because of how unreliable the national grid is. The cost of that electricity is also significantly higher than it would have been with well run central grid using fossil fuel.

The lloyds numbers you shared show a steep decline in investment over the past three years.

The IDC is an arm of the South African government, so having it call itself a top investment destination is like having a marketer trying to sell you on their own product.

The UN report only shows the inflow by region, not country.

The PWC report shows everything being down with the exception of net operating cash flow which does not tell you a lot about the sector as a whole. Their predictions do not point to anything to substantiate their prediction of 5.7% per annum manufacturing GDP growth. Of course then again, if these numbers are not inflation adjusted and inflation is at or above 5.7% then that may be where that is coming from.

Given that the average GDP per person is 8k US a year, without a significant increase of the GDP it's not possible to increase the standard of living for the population has a whole. You can't get blood from a stone.

[TimorousBestie]

> Loadshedding is no more.

I largely agree with you otherwise (viz. South Africa is on the whole improving) but on this specific point I think you’re optimistic. When summer comes round I’m pretty confident Eskom will start loadshedding again, and their public statements more or less align with this.

Regardless: not a sign of decline! Loadshedding is evidence that demand > supply, but that doesn’t imply supply is decreasing or the system as a whole is failing. On the other hand, there’s plenty of evidence that supply has steadily increased since the 90s, new facilities opening and what not. Widespread solar will only improve the situation as the tech improves.

[lgleason]

Actually, electricity production has gone down, while the price continues to outstrip inflation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_South_Africa

Because of this many companies are reducing staff or pulling out. https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/837719/important-busi...

....and that's before we get into things like Transnet and SA Air. I'd love to see the country succeed, but putting your head in the sand and denying that there is a problem will not fix things.

[mad_tortoise]

Literally no one said there isn't a problem. No one said that. But disagreeing about a 'state of decline' when the facts of the quality of improvement of the lives of the entire population has increased over a 30 year period disputes the rhetoric of 'state of decline'. Decline from what? When Apartheid made the lives of 10% good and the lives of 90% shit?

[marcusverus]

> Decline from what?

GDP is down ~12% since 2010, even though the population has grown by 20% over the same period. Per capita is down ~40% since 2010. Why are you pretending that this isn't an issue?

[lgleason]

Manufacturing and the economy are in trouble and have been for a number of years.

https://currencynews.co.za/manufacturing-meltdown-south-afri...

It sounds like you prefer communism over capitalism. Sadly, South Africa is heading towards communism. The only consolation is that then at least everybody will be poor.

[redochre]

South Africa is not heading to communism.

The government is privatising electricity generation and increasing private sector access to the rail network.

The business friendly Democratic Alliance party is in coalition with the ANC, rather than the far left of the EFF which is currently not in government.

You can believe South Africa will end up being communist. But the evidence falls against the statement that South Africa is heading to communism.

Privatisation is not communism.

[mad_tortoise]

So you don't have links to back up your claims.

What is also hilarious is ad hominem trying to call me a communist (which I am not), and shouldn't matter either way. But what is funny is how you decry the state of things currently, which is happening under capitalism, yet the extent of your criticism of the society can't reach to the system within which it exists. However you create a nebulous hypothetical in trying to plaster me with an insult that another system would be so much worse, when according to you the state of how things is bad as it is.

So where is your critique of capitalism?

[klipt]

Fun fact: when the Gupta brothers were starting to run into trouble for stealing South African public funds, they paid British PR firm Bell Pottinger £100,000 a month to distract the public.

That's when Bell Pottinger came up with a campaign to stoke racial tension by popularizing the phrase "white monopoly capital" to distract from the Guptas:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/sep/05/bell-pottinger...

[Havoc]

The stats you posted paint a good picture of improving lives in real ways but they're only part of the picture - and not the deciding ones.

We all saw it with electricity - handing out more access isn't the hard part. Backing that with funding and capacity to deliver is.

Inequality, unemployment and debt/gdp are all on very alarming trajectories. Without a very sharp course adjustment (and soon) there are dark clouds ahead that could undo all the victories you list. Not sure if that makes it a decline, but if it were a car ride I'd say it's time to buy crash insurance

[antonvs]

I'm sure you know this, but the "steady decline" narrative tends to come from people who are comparing it to the apartheid-era standard of living for white people there, effectively supported by slave labor. (In hindsight, no wonder Reagan and the US Republicans were so supportive of it!)

[mad_tortoise]

I am white. I am surrounded by white people. The standard of living of just about every white person I know has increased in the past 25 years.

It's really simple, we as white people have been given - historically and now - just about every advantage a minority can have. If a white person or their parents couldn't make the most of that well then that's ok, because equality and equity are the goals. And just because a PoC are succeeding more now, does not mean white people are suffering in the least.

[tibbydudeza]

Looking at our roads these days the latest Chinese SUV's and I saw a BYD Shark pickup truck the other day - why on earth would they open dealerships if there is no money to be made ?.