[Analemma_]

Nobody has been talking about UBI except in the same sense that people talk about warp drives, i.e. as a nice-to-have-someday bit of speculative fiction. Everyone is aware that if UBI were actually proposed in the political sphere it would be killed immediately, by most of the some oligarchs who dishonestly talk about it now.

[solumunus]

But when consumers disappear and the wealth is threatened, won’t it simply be the only solution to keep the show going for the oligarchs? It may well be inevitable.

[kipchak]

High income consumers are a steadily increasing percentage of consumer spending, and the bottom 60% of consumers are something like 20% of all spend. One outcome is just that the trend continues and high income consumers spend more which offsets decreases in low income consumers.

[solumunus]

That cohort can’t buy many iPhones. Does the price of an iPhone balloon to 5 figures to compensate?

[kipchak]

I think this is part of the reason why Apple has been promoting subscription services. iPhones have historically been apple's largest revenue source, but revenues have been increasing, from about 10% to 20% over the last 10 years.

Lets say the lower 50% of consumers buy something like a $1000 phone every 4 years currently, and they switch to buying a 16e for $600, or a decrease of $100 a year per customer. In revenue terms you could offset this by selling .5 customers a $240 a year Apple one subscription, up-selling a iPhone pro customer to 1TB storage, or convincing someone to buy a pair of Airpods Max over regular Airpods.