[chadash]

The math is wrong:

> Cost: $1,000 Case 1 (90%): OpenAI goes bankrupt. Return: $0 Case 2 (9%): OpenAI becomes a big successful company and goes 10x. Return: $1,000 + 5% interest = $1,050 Case 3 (1%): OpenAI becomes the big new thing and goes 100x. Return: $1,000 + 5% interest = $1,050

The actual math is that if OpenAI succeeds, then there's a nod and a wink that JPM will land the lead role in the IPO or any mergers/acquisitions, which translates into huge fees.

[addicted]

This is correct.

This isn't a financial transaction. This is a "relationship" transaction.

[JamesBarney]

Not to mention the risks that OpenAI even if it does goes bankrupt sells for less than 4b is not anywhere close to 90%.

[shmatt]

a company with 800 million weekly active users, and only losing $10B-$15B before implementing ads - which IMO is coming fast and soon to the LLM world - i would never calculate a 90% chance their shares end up at $0 before an exit option

This is the easiest money and best relationship JPM could imagine

[kibwen]

> a company with 800 million weekly active users

Wow, that's slightly more than Yahoo has. Well, had.

[HaZeust]

Yahoo is a disingenuous parallel here. Yahoo lost because they didn't correctly embrace their market position in what's otherwise the very ripe industry of search engines. Search engines created the 4th most valuable company in the world (Google).

We don't know how ripe OpenAI's industry or market position is, yet. Yahoo knew what they had lost pretty early onto its spiral.

[empath75]

Also, if OpenAI goes bankrupt, you _much_ prefer to have loaned them money to having bought shares in the company. People who own shares in a bankruptcy only recover anything after all the people that loaned them money are paid back in full.