Y
Hacker News
new
|
ask
|
show
|
jobs
by
greenfish6
243 days ago
The first example has a miscalculation; if you invest 1k and the EV is 900, then your choice has negative ROI, not positive.
3 comments
breischl
243 days ago
He's calculating EV above cost. If you look at the calculation, the first term is -1000 to account for the initial investment. So the final value is tell you that you got back the initial money plus 900 more.
link
neom
243 days ago
However, the article is technically inconsistent in framing.
link
quirino
243 days ago
The calculation that arrives at 900 has already subtracted the 1000 from the start.
link
postflopclarity
243 days ago
it's correct. the EV is 900 after accounting for the 90% probability of -$1000. that's what the first term in the sum is for.
link