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by toomuchtodo 235 days ago
> According to calculations by the presidency, an average Polish family is expected to be around 1,000 zloty (€235) per month better off thanks to the new tax break.

Interesting to see if this incentive is sufficient to convince those with less than two children to get to two. €2820/year seems...insufficient to move the needle.
1 comments
dash2 235 days ago
I mean, it'll move people on the margin! If the money margin is what matters.
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toomuchtodo 235 days ago
Poland's total fertility rate (tfr) is lower than Japan at the moment, and lowest in 200 years, ~1.1. Based on all available evidence, I think it is highly unlikely this increases the fertility rate in a meaningful way, but only time will tell.

> While different agencies use slightly different methodologies to calculate fertility rate, according to the Population Reference Bureau, a US-based NGO, only eight countries in the world had a lower number than Poland’s figure of 1.1 in 2024. They include Singapore, Thailand, Ukraine (all 1.0) and, in last place, South Korea (0.7). Poland’s rate is lower than Japan’s (1.2), a country that has long struggled with demographic issues, as well as those of western European states such as Germany, the UK (both 1.4) and France (1.6).

> A recent University of Warsaw study found that, among members of Gen Z (born 1995 to 2012) the most commonly cited reasons for not wanting children were poor housing conditions, unstable work, and a difficult financial situation. But over half said that nothing would convince them to have a child.

Poland’s fertility rate fell to new low in 2024 - https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/06/02/polands-fertility-rat... - June 2nd, 2025

https://www.tvp.info/87031294/demogorafia-w-polsce-badanie-p...

> Given that South Korea recently broke its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate for the fourth year in a row, with a TFR which currently stands at just 0.72, I will focus on South Korea as the obvious case of a nation-state vying to get its citizens to procreate. South Korea has spent $270 billion in the past 16 years to promote childbirth, and ideas for pronatalist incentives to date have included baby bonuses, cash rewards, exemption from mandatory military service and even state-sponsored dating events. Superficially, these heterogeneous incentivising measures don’t seem all that morally objectionable, though a question that will loom large in the background for the foreseeable future is the extent to which they actually work, and at what cost.

Towards an ethics of pronatalism in South Korea (and beyond) - https://jme.bmj.com/content/51/6/371 | https://doi.org/10.1136/jme-2024-110001

TLDR Poland doesn't have the financial capacity at nation state scale to encourage their target demographic outcome.

(think in systems)

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